Labour is deeply split between Blairites and more traditional tax and spenders. Gordon Brown is trying to straddle the two wings, hinting deeply to the left ??that he has been the architect of tax and spend, centralised public services, resistance to the wilder parts of the Blairite programme, whilst at the same time saying he supports Tony Blair in his wish to modernise and reform as well as spend.
It is not clear how the battle will end in Labour, especially as it is still most likely to be a struggle within the mind of Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister in waiting. It is still more likely Milliband will not stand than he will, still more likely Labour will accept their fate and welcome Gordon than plan a successful coup against him.
This does not mean the battle is over for the modernisers. The new Prime Minister will inherit a position where there is less extra money available for public spending than in the past, and will understand the public mood that we are fed up with paying so much for so little. He will need to have some prominent Blairite modernisers around him. They will be generating more of the ideas, trying to push the new PM in the direction of greater choice within the public services, more use of the private sector and more emphasis on personal and family responsibility.
It is difficult to see, however, that Gordon Brown will be able to push through choice and the private sector based reforms that Tony Blair was unable to achieve. He will need Union funding for the next election, and his own instincts are for centralisation and government control rather than for the freedom of the marketplace.
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Labour will in practise be the monopoly public sector tax and spend party, with the new added ingredient of much smaller increases in spending.
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The Conservative party in the country,stimulated ??by more success at the polls, will come to understand the modernising purpose of David Cameron more than it has done so far. They will come to appreciate that "hugging a hoodie" before he goes off the rails does not mean their Leader is soft on crime, that sharing the proceeds of growth does mean lower taxes allied to economic prudence to avoid high interest rates, and seeking powers back from Brussels whilst keeping trade arrangements with our partners is the mainstream view in the UK. The Conservatives are currently the most united party of the three. It is the only party where the leadership question has been settled. The modernisers will be able to push ahead and produce a mroe radical manifesto that will offer much more personal freedom and responsibility, fewer laws and regulations, more decentralised decision taking.
??The Liberal Democrats are deeply split, between the minority of modernisers who want to make the Liberal Democrats more like the Conservatives, and the left wing majority who think Labur’s mistake is they have not spent enough in many areas and have not regulated and taxed enough either. They are worried about the performance of their leader.
??When you look at what modernising means in both the Labour and Liberal democrat parties, you realise it is similar to the agenda many of us Conservatives have had for many years.
They are beginning to realise a high tax Britain will be a less successful Britain.
They are coming to understand that monopoly public servies controlled by Whitehall do not work well, and waste a lot of money.
They want to harness the private sector in the NHS and education.
The see that the comprehensive school and the council estate in the inner city are letting people down – they understand the damage less social mobility is doing.
It will be an exciting time as the battles are fought out within the parties.
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