I have assumed Gordon Brown would be too cautious to go for an early election. The sabre rattling is to try to get the Conservatives to rush out policy too early, and to spend too much money on a phoney war this year.

The case for going early that some of his supporters are urging is based on the “Brown bounce” in the polls and his ability to go to the country on the back of a series of announcements designed to show changes from the Blair regime. If they were serious about this option there would need to be more moves to reassure middle England.

1. The EU constitution is the spectre at the feast. The IGC will meander across the summer. Putting the legislation through Parliament is likely to occupy time until the spring of next year, if they seek to accelerate, or later if not. Going to the country before that is put to bed would be very dangerous. The Conservatives could spend much of the election demanding a referendum and highlighting how the red lines have not been protected. They would be able to remind the public how the promise of the referendum stopped proper debate of the issue in the last election. The only way out for the PM would be to offer a referendum and to explain at the IGC how the present deal is likely to be voted down if they do not improve it. That would make him more popular at home.

2. People are feeling a bit squeezed by high taxes and high mortgage rates. A further increase or two in interest rates, and no relief on Council Tax, Inheritance Tax and the other unpopular taxes is not a good backdrop for a General Election for the governing party. The welcome cuts in Standard rate Income Tax and Corporation Tax do not come in in time for an early election,whilst the abolition of the 10p band will anyway leave some worse off. The government would need to find a way of indicating lower interest rates and /or lower taxes ahead to stimulate a better feeling about economic prospects.

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