Aug 23 2007
The Iraq divide between the allies
The rift between the US and the UK over Iraq is growing. American sources are now saying on the record that Britain’s ill disguised retreat from Basra is destablising the south at a time when the US wants to reinforce positions throughout the country.
As readers of this blog will know, I have always worried about revealing your intention to retreat too long before you execute the action, as it does weaken the overall position and expose your own forces. I also fear that the US will lose its own determination to try to impose order on Iraq. The US needs to understand that many of the problems in Iraq come from the warring factions and the inability of the elected government to create a political settlement in favour of united Iraq. Without a political consensus in favour of a united democratic Iraq the foreign forces trying to keep order become part of the problem.
George Bush claims that retreat now would create a Viet Nam. It is difficult to see that the US can commit sufficient forces to subdue the violence and rebellion throughout the country, and difficult to see how you can establish an independent vibrant democracy if it depends entirely on the heavy use of foreign force to sustain the elected government. It was a brave decision to throw the Viet Nam analogy back at his critics, but it will leave many people fearing that the final retreat from Baghdad will be like the retreat from Saigon
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John Redwood has been the Member of Parliament for Wokingham since 1987. First attending Kent College, Canterbury, he graduated from Magdalen College...
“…….the inability of the elected government to create a political settlement in favour of united Iraq. Without a political consensus in favour of a united democratic Iraq the foreign forces trying to keep order become part of the problem…..
In that case why are we trying to preserve a united Iraq? If the people most concerned can’t form a political consensus to do so, why should outsiders insist on it?
Reply: A good question. There has been too much military action and too little political sense.
Its clear that the concept of a democratic post-Saddam Iraq was flawed. Too much thought was given to the removal of Saddam and too little to the aftermath. The only way to bring peace to the country is to break it up. Currently there is no consensus at all between the various factions. Where possible the country should be divided along traditional religious/cultural grounds. If that means the forceable re-location of peoples then so be it. Anything would be beter than the current carnage. The United Nations would have to be involved and supply peace-keeping troops with the backing of all sides. Outside powers such as Iran would have to agree, and be forced, not to interfere with the reconstitution of Iraq. Any withdrawal of British troops would give the UN an opportunity to fill the void. It could become a testing ground for a wider UN role.