Comments on: Does the USA pick a fight with Iran? http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/ Conservative Party Member of Parliament for Wokingham Sat, 11 Oct 2008 09:19:27 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Steven_L http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5399 Steven_L Thu, 30 Aug 2007 01:21:34 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5399 There will be no attack on Iran, there is no political support. The Ayatollahs will wind up the Bush administration as they know they can, they will kepp their population mobilised against the 'Great Satan' just in case. All the pressure is surely being applied behind the scenes, by the USA making concessions to Putin in return for a Russian change of heart over Iranian nuclear ambitions. Putin put Iran on their nuclear program long before 9/11 and the 'Axis of Evil' speech. He did so in retaliation to the 'Son of Star Wars' program, which a cynical person such as myself considers a way of draining US taxpayers dollars to help out political allies. 'The Star Wars Plan' is and has always been a white elephant. Putin played the smart move here, but I doubt Bush really cares. If the USA wanted to attack Iran, from what I've heard, the nuclear facilities are so deep down (Putin has been helping) that we would need to invade on the ground or use nuclear weapons ourselves. The nuclear option is a no-go area, invading would mean surrounding Iran with 5th generation fighters and trashing their whole airforce on day one before lauching a 'blitzkreig' ground assault accompanied by massive air support against a 10 million strong army including reservists. The result would be regional war. Having said all this Iran, Saudi Arabia and Al Qaeda are to bame for what is happening in Iraq, not Bush. There will be no attack on Iran, there is no political support. The Ayatollahs will wind up the Bush administration as they know they can, they will kepp their population mobilised against the ‘Great Satan’ just in case. All the pressure is surely being applied behind the scenes, by the USA making concessions to Putin in return for a Russian change of heart over Iranian nuclear ambitions.

Putin put Iran on their nuclear program long before 9/11 and the ‘Axis of Evil’ speech. He did so in retaliation to the ‘Son of Star Wars’ program, which a cynical person such as myself considers a way of draining US taxpayers dollars to help out political allies. ‘The Star Wars Plan’ is and has always been a white elephant. Putin played the smart move here, but I doubt Bush really cares.

If the USA wanted to attack Iran, from what I’ve heard, the nuclear facilities are so deep down (Putin has been helping) that we would need to invade on the ground or use nuclear weapons ourselves. The nuclear option is a no-go area, invading would mean surrounding Iran with 5th generation fighters and trashing their whole airforce on day one before lauching a ‘blitzkreig’ ground assault accompanied by massive air support against a 10 million strong army including reservists. The result would be regional war.

Having said all this Iran, Saudi Arabia and Al Qaeda are to bame for what is happening in Iraq, not Bush.

]]> By: jorgen http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5380 jorgen Wed, 29 Aug 2007 14:16:18 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5380 I agree with Dontmakelaugh and Powell. Bush is slowly opening up for either a US attack on refineries or for Israel to attack a nuclear site. I agree with Dontmakelaugh and Powell. Bush is slowly opening up for either a US attack on refineries or for Israel to attack a nuclear site.

]]> By: Tony Makara http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5379 Tony Makara Wed, 29 Aug 2007 13:53:22 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5379 John, do you think there is a possibility that Israel may take a limited form of military action against Iran? Say, an air strike at specific targets? If so how should the west react? reply: Israel would only do so if the USA was in support or prepared to turn a blind eye. I don't see it happening in the immediate future, both because the US would I suspect be reluctant to sanction it, and because Israel is still recovering from her last military action. An escalation of US action is also possible but I would be surprised to see it soon. John, do you think there is a possibility that Israel may take a limited form of military action against Iran? Say, an air strike at specific targets? If so how should the west react?

reply: Israel would only do so if the USA was in support or prepared to turn a blind eye. I don’t see it happening in the immediate future, both because the US would I suspect be reluctant to sanction it, and because Israel is still recovering from her last military action. An escalation of US action is also possible but I would be surprised to see it soon.

]]> By: Jonathan Powell http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5374 Jonathan Powell Wed, 29 Aug 2007 11:55:04 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5374 I agree that an actual invasion is unlikely, but the president has more than words at his disposal: there is a good case to be made for limited military action against Iran in the form of airstrikes targeting the Revolutionary Guard, nuclear sites and possibly oil refineries. See http://www.commentarymagazine.com/cm/main/viewArticle.html?id=10882 http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/08/insurgencies-ar.html The 1st link is by an advisor to Rudy Giuliani. I agree that an actual invasion is unlikely, but the president has more than words at his disposal: there is a good case to be made for limited military action against Iran in the form of airstrikes targeting the Revolutionary Guard, nuclear sites and possibly oil refineries. See

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/cm/main/viewArticle.html?id=10882

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2007/08/insurgencies-ar.html

The 1st link is by an advisor to Rudy Giuliani.

]]> By: Dontmakelaugh http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5367 Dontmakelaugh Wed, 29 Aug 2007 09:48:44 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5367 You have got things back to front; it is not the USA that picked this fight, it was and is Iran and it kicked off after the Shah was sent packing by the Theocrats. "That leaves the President with words". Which president are you talking about? Could it be the one promising to wipe Israel of the map? Or is it the one hogtied by the naive liberal politicos, media and fence sitters. You will not be remaining unsure for too long, one way or another. Reply: I am talking about the US President. Are you saying that you think a US invasion of Iran is a likely option before the end of this current Presidency? For whatever reason, I do not think it is likely. If I am right, the President has to deal with Iran with words. I am not sure he chose the right ones yesterday.It is possible to understand the nature of threats to our peace, without having an easy answer on how we reduce them or eliminate them. You have got things back to front; it is not the USA that picked this fight, it was and is Iran and it kicked off after the Shah was sent packing by the Theocrats.
“That leaves the President with words”. Which president are you talking about? Could it be the one promising to wipe Israel of the map? Or is it the one hogtied by the naive liberal politicos, media and fence sitters.
You will not be remaining unsure for too long, one way or another.

Reply: I am talking about the US President. Are you saying that you think a US invasion of Iran is a likely option before the end of this current Presidency? For whatever reason, I do not think it is likely. If I am right, the President has to deal with Iran with words. I am not sure he chose the right ones yesterday.It is possible to understand the nature of threats to our peace, without having an easy answer on how we reduce them or eliminate them.

]]> By: Tony Makara http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5360 Tony Makara Wed, 29 Aug 2007 08:15:04 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/29/does-the-usa-pick-a-fight-with-iran/#comment-5360 One has to question the judgement of Mr Bush. There are enough problems already in Iraq without extending tensions to Iran. The interference coming from Iran is not helpful. However an armed response from the United States would be a case of overkill. The best way to keep Iran in check is through dialogue. The Iranan regime is unsavory and unstable. There have been street protests against Ahmadinejad, such feeling may eventually lead to his downfall, the ruling clique in Iran may deem Ahmadinejad to be a liability. However if Mr Bush persues a military option with Iran that will re-enforce Ahmadinejad's position and make him stronger than ever. One has to question the judgement of Mr Bush. There are enough problems already in Iraq without extending tensions to Iran. The interference coming from Iran is not helpful. However an armed response from the United States would be a case of overkill. The best way to keep Iran in check is through dialogue. The Iranan regime is unsavory and unstable. There have been street protests against Ahmadinejad, such feeling may eventually lead to his downfall, the ruling clique in Iran may deem Ahmadinejad to be a liability. However if Mr Bush persues a military option with Iran that will re-enforce Ahmadinejad’s position and make him stronger than ever.

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