Readers of this blogsite will know I have felt for sometime that the difference between the Uk and the US would turn out to be one of timing of the exit of troops from Iraq, rather than something more fundamental.

The political departure of Mr Blair before Mr Bush speeded up the political imperative in the Uk to bring troops home. The British military also felt they were making more speedy progress in training and equipping Iraqis to take over their functions in Basra. The British and the US military/diplomatic establishments both agree that military actions to try to create order on the streets can only succeed if the opportunity is also taken to create a political settlement. Now the US is divided between Bush supporters who want to keep more troops in Iraq for longer to give more chance of finding a political settlement, and more chance of reducing the violence, and the Democrats who want to bring more troops home more quickly.

The President and his chief military adviser believe that they can have the best of both worlds - reduced violence thanks to the surge coupled with some troops coming back to the USA before Christmas. They will also have the advantage of seeing what happens to crimes and violence levels in Basra now the UK military have turned more of the policing task over to Iraqi forces. There still needs to be a stronger diplomatic and political surge as a complement to the military activities. It cannot be a permanent solution to have large numbers of US troops keeping order on the streets, and much remains to be done for the Iraqis to find a way of conducting self government that all communities can accept.

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