Sep 22 2007
Should Gordon Brown go the polls early?
Some in Labour are urging an early election, because their latest polls apparently look good.
There are three reasons to go early. The first is they can claim they want the newish Prime Minister to gain his own mandate. The second is the polls might get worse the more people get to know him as Prime Minister. The third is we are now entering a tighter period on public spending which could upset more of Labour’s traditional voters who work in the public services.
There are several reasons not to go early. The electorate does not like unnecessary elections, and Labour has a strong majority until May 2010 if it wishes. The polls are fluctuating wildly, especially in the crucial marginals. Labour is in a very weak polling ppositon in Scotland, where a general Election would see them lose seats to the SNP. Big SNP advances at Westminster would mean a Parliament dominated by rows over the constitutional issue in a way which would weaken Labour, traditionally dependent on Scottish representation to a considerable extent. There is every reason for Labour to fear the polls could swing around a lot more in a rowdy election campaign.
Opposition parties could play up the “cut and run” election, asking what the Prime Minister knows is still hidden on the economy, financial system and elsewhere after the difficult events of recent weeks. Now we have the Chancellor himself telling us it is not good to have rising house prices the election could ask what is going to happen to people’s main asset in this new climate. Any election could not be held before the end of October. The evenings will be drawing in and the weather may be worse, which does not help the incumbent. Foot and Mouth could spread more, fianncial problems could re-emerge in the cash starved markets. In short, there are plenty of events which could be unhelpful to the government, who would be held to blame by Opposition parties granted the oxygen of General Election publicity and urged on by the need to win their own seats.
Those who say he cannot afford to go early are underestimating the willingness of the Trade Unions to fund Labour should the need arise. It would still be a big gamble for the new PM, who would go down in history as a huge failure if he gambled and lost.
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John Redwood has been the Member of Parliament for Wokingham since 1987. First attending Kent College, Canterbury, he graduated from Magdalen College...
This will be Brown’s best opportunity for the reasons you gave. The subject you couldn’t raise was the failure of David Cameron to capitalise on the marvellous opportunity he was gifted when he became leader of the Conservative Party. There is even talk in the media now about “Brown Conservatives” who would prefer to vote for Brown rather than Cameron. Whilst this may be a little far fetched, there are many who do not see the Conservative Party under the present leadership as representing the vision and policies for this country that they could support. Those people will not vote Labour or LibDem but will either abstain or vote UKIP or even BNP. The result will be the same - an increased Labour majority. What a tragedy for the country that the Conservatives chose the wrong man.
Reply: People would be silly to vote for parties that cannot get a single MP elected, and refuse to help make a decision between Labour and Conservative. This could be a very important election, as it looks as if this is the last chance to have a referendum on a serious matter concerned with the EU.
If Brown does decide to risk everything for an extra couple of years in power it will tell us that he fears an economic downturn. When Brown annonced a rash of revamped policies during his coronation it certainly looked like he was gearing up for an election. I can’t see Brown being in a stronger position. He must go soon.
What particularly facinates me is how Gordon Brown will cope against David Cameron in a high-paced three week campaign. David Cameron has a huge advantage over Brown in terms of prestentation and media skills. Gordon Brown by contrast will soon appear stodgy when given the day-to-day exposure that comes with an election. Labour’s ‘Not flash, just Gordon’ poster campain basically acknowledges that Brown isn’t a dynamic proactive politican.
The Callaghan factor may play a part on Brown’s thinking. If Brown procrastinates and goes late the scale of Labour’s defeat could put them out of power for a generation. Gordon Brown really does need to go early, while the going is still relatively good. The erastz-economy won’t hold up forever.
The housing data (BOE lending, Nationwide and Land Registry) at the end of October is going to produce really awful headlines in the papers. He has to go before the end of October before the economic and housing downturn rears it’s head. Having said that a recent poll suggests the public would rather have Brown and co. in an economic downturn. Trusting in the safe pair of hands that got them into the mess rather than fresh ideas - who are these pollsters asking?
An October election will be one to lose I fear
John,
You say in your reply to my posting that “People would be silly to vote for parties that cannot get a single MP elected, and refuse to help make a decision between Labour and Conservative”. However, you need to understand that many people don’t agree with what they know of Cameron’s proposals. I have heard it said that there is no need to worry because when elected he will change his approach. I don’t accept that thesis and would find it deplorable if true. The choice therefore offered to potential Conservative voters would then seem to be to vote for policies you don’t agree with or to hope that you are voting for a fraud. This is not credible and so, although there is no desire to see this ruinous Labour government continue in office, the Conservative alternative is not considered acceptable - hence the moves to UKIP and BNP which you describe as “silly”. This reaction is precisely part of Cameron’s mistaken approach in taking the traditional Conservative vote for granted and also at times adopting an attitude to them approaching contempt.
I know Tories who will vote Tory out of loyalty, but certainly not with any enthusiasm. Brown knows this too. Recent Polls show that there’s absolutely no swing to the Tories. They’re standing still.
If I was Brown, I’d go to the country now.
You’ve got to admit, it’s not looking good.
Coral are the only one of the big 3 bookies adevrtising odds on the next general election.
They make Labour 1/2 and Conservatives 6/4.
Up my neck of the woods everyone who takes any interest in politics thinks William Hague is the best man you’ve got. If there is an election soon you should send him up North campaigning.
Reply: William Hague has been in charge of Northern campaigning for many months
It’s amazing how people genuflect their morale to pollsters’ reports which are known to be inaccurate, especially prior to elections, when bias increases.
The factors explained by John here are substantially in favour of Cameron. He did not mention that there is a noticeable swing to Conservatives in the South, where economic and other mismanagement is bugging voters.
He might have added that in the Redwood week when the Economic Competitiveness Report was flling the airwaves, Labour’s lead fell to around 2/3%. But modesty forbids.
Cameron should take the lesson of that and expose more of Redwood’s intelligent analysis to the public.
Sorry to suck up to an author in his own comments, but it’s true.
The only sensible thing I heard/read from last week’s conference was Margaret Becket’s statement that the polls are volatile. If Brownie goes to the country now it is a massive gamble. Remember what happened to Harold Wilson in 1970.