Oct 04 2007
Memo to PM re Election
The following is the kind of Memo a senior Labour adviser should send privately to the PM:
To Prime Minister
From Senior Political Adviser
This week-end you have to make a final decision on whether to hold a General Election this year or not. You need to tell Parliament at the earliest opportunity next week, as the uncertainty in the government and the country is now damaging, and is giving the impression that you are dithering. Possible elections erode your authority very rapidly. The civil service cannot get on with normal business if their minds are on preparing briefs for possible new incoming governments, and if they have to be cautious in support they give to Ministers if our announcements appear to be political rather than governmental.
It was a good idea to allow Young Turks to brief the media that there could be an early General Election to try to frighten the Conservatives, and to force them to rush out policy plans. Unfortunately it has now gone too far. As a result it has helped unite the Conservatives for a future contest and has led the media to become more critical of governmental statements and of photo opportunities you are making. It has also resulted in great pressure to hold an early election, with people saying you would look weak if you now backed away.
My advice is very strongly that you should not be swayed by this thinking. If you now decide against an early election there will be a few days of press froth, but we can spin quite legitimately that you never made any statement about an early election and always said you were getting on with the job of PM. Had you in public slapped down your eager supporters who wanted an early election we would get ourselves into the position of having to provide a running commentary on Election dates for the next two years, which would not be helpful. We might also restore some of the position on telling Parliament first if you told Parliament in an aside early next week, as people are becoming cynical about your wish to do politics differently in a post spin era.
The only reason to go this early is if you think you can win a larger majorirty than you currently enjoy. Clearly any outcome that entailed the election of a Conservative government, or the loss of an overall Labour majority in the Commons would be a disaster for you personally and for the Labour party. But winning a small majority below the one Tony Blair achieved would also be presented by many as a partial defeat, weakening your authority, leading more to question your judgement, and cutting your time in power by as much as the two and half years we would forego. The very Young Turks who now favour an early election, would start to coalesce around a younger replacement for you before the end of the next Parliament. We would also be much more vulnerable to rebellions if the majority is reduced. So far in this Parliament we have managed them well as it requires more than 35 Labour MPs to actually vote against before we could lose a vote.
So what is the prospect of you winning by more than in 2005? I have to tell you that the prospects are not good. The mood in the country is sceptical about all three main political parties. Abstention is likely to remain very high. We have to worry about differential abstention rates, as the evenings draw in and maybe the weather worsens. If Labour voters think it is in the bag because you have decided to go for an early win they might be lazy or casual about voting. The register is very out of date, so some voters will be disenfranchised.Meanwhile all those who have doubts about the government may be more galvanised into ensuring there is a stronger opposition - they might even overdo it.
We should also remember that the 2005 election was not a conventional election, with the two main parties fighting for a uniform and limited swing across the coutnry. Both our campaign and the Tories one put people off, but fortunately national campaigns did not have a huge impact. Instead there were wildly different swings in different parts of the country and even in adjacent seats. We lost some on swings of more than 20% against us. The Tories who won seats overall had a 10% swing against them to lose Solihul. Today the Tories have done more work in key marginals, and have learnt that they need to target and fashion local campaigns on the ground to convince people to go and vote in seats which can change hands. This is making some of our MPs in marginal seats very nervous, and they do not agree about the need for an early election.
The position in Scotland is not good. The SNP are so much stronger in polls than in 2005, and the honeymoon with the SNP executive continues. Whilst we will still keep many of our seats there, losing some will erode your authority, strengthen the forces against the Union, and divert attention to the Scottish issue which exposes the weakeness of our position over the representation of England.
We can carry on saying most people do not care about the EU issues, and concentrate on the NHS and schools, but as you know there is a vocal minority who care greatly about the EU Constitution. The Tories could try to turn this into a issue of trust, claiming you had broken your word from 2005 when you promised a referendum. Whilst we have a clever legal case about the differences, the polling shows it is not working. I sometimes wonder if David Miliband has his heart in trying to persuade the public that this latest Treaty is not the Constitution.It might be better to rush the Constitutional Treaty through next year before having an election, so we can claim it is a done deal. This autumn the argument for a referendum could lose us votes, and could help to undermine your reputation for strength and honesty.
We also need to remember that the Tories were in office for 17 years partly because they kept the opposition splilt between ourselves and Lib Dems. We have been able to do the same to them for the last 10. At the moment the Lib dems are facing a disastrous result, which will greatly help the Tories. If we delay there is the possibility the Lib Dems might find a way to recover some of their strength, or even realise they need to change their Leader.
You always said you would not go to the country unless you had been more than 10 points ahead for a decent period. We are not reliably 10 points ahead. I am worried by the volatility of the mood, and by the recent way the press has turned against you on Europe, on Iraq and on some of your cleverer press initiatives. I would urge caution. Why throw away two and half years of the job you have fought so hard to obtain?
John Redwood has been the Member of Parliament for Wokingham since 1987. First attending Kent College, Canterbury, he graduated from Magdalen College...
Exactly the reason there won’t be an early election. Mr Brown may be a lot of things but daft he is not. He will hang on to power, because that’s what it is all about for him and his colleagues, gone is the notion of public service. Government abandoned in favour of management. Gordon will not risk an early election. Sadly though, he can do so much more damage in the time he still has before he is required to call an election. Well who knows, he and his predecessor have ridden rough shod over much of our constitution already, so perhaps he will change the rules concerning terms in office as well.
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Briiliant piece John. One thing is for sure, the moment someone reaches the top of the political tree there will always be a generation of hungry career-mongers below wanting to supplant them. Politics is very Darwinian and although Gordon Brown may now see himself as a big goldfish in a tank full of fry it won’t be long before young pretenders emerge to challenge him. In the Ant kindom the older ants end up getting kicked out by the younger more dynamic elements, no mercy is shown. So it usually is in politics. The competitive nature of politics means the people in political life all have an assertive and ruthless streak, otherwise they wouldn’t survive. So watch out Gordon Brown because as John says the young Turks will be watching you!
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Super stuff! Well done!
It is very clear to me (in the provinces) that Mr Brown is not the brilliant stretegist he is made out to be. What is obvious is that, when there is a crisis he is either not there or else that he dithers.
He also has a really mean streak - like the upstaging of the Party Conference this week.
I give him, at most, a year before he turns into Jim Callahan.
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A very,very compelling analysis.
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In all the excitement about the timing of an election, let us not forget that Commissar Brown forced the resignation of a sitting Prime Minister who had declared that it was his intention to serve a full third term. He did this, ruthlessly, less than half way through a parliament, to give himself time to establish his leadership. During most of his first hundred days parliament has not been sitting and he has had the benefit of a largely supportive media anxious to maintain good relations with a man they knew to be a control freak. Seeing a favourable move in the opinion polls, Brown instructed his acolytes to whip up the talk of an imminent election in an opportunistic move designed to manipulate the electoral process for his personal advantage. Whether there is an election now or not, it is clear that in Brown we have a man who is not to be trusted and presents a danger to our basic democracy.
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