Oct 06 2007
Possible third thoughts on an election from a Labour adviser
The Adviser has been asked to put in his "final thoughts" to today’s Prime Minisetrial review of the evidence for an early election. They might go as follows:
To Prime Minister
From Senior Political Adviser
You have asked me to get under the skin of the public mood. I think it is very cynical about all three political parties, and it is too early for you to have changed the scepticism about what the government says and does after Tony’s spin dominated years. This has not been helped by the unfriendly response of the media to your morale boosting visit to the troops in Iraq and statement about withdrawal, nor with the newspapers hostility to your wish to handle the EU Constitution in Parliament rather than by referendum.
The polls are very volatile, with only one clear trend - the Lib Dems are doing very badly and will lose a few seats to us, but more to the Conservatives. With polls around level pegging we could within the margin of error lose our overall majority, whilst of course remaining the largest party. This could be spun as a bad result for the Libs - because they had fallen in numbers of MPs - and for the Conservatives because they had not won enough seats to take over the government, but in reality it would be a disastrous result for us as we could only carry on governing with the help of other parties. A wound licking Lib Dem party facing an immediate leadership election might not be very co-operative or have much moral authority to enter a coalition. New SNP MPs, probably more in number, would love to snub us. The Conservatives are unlikely to want to enter a national government nor would we want them. It would create an unstable position, and it might only be a matter of time before another election had to be called.
You should not underestimate the dislike of the main parties. Remember that in 2005 Labour only polled just over one in five of all voters, as did the Conservatives, whilst the Lib dems only managed one in eight. The latest polls show no surge in wish to vote, and suggest the main change to those figures is the Lib Dems now struggle to gain the support of one in ten. In such conditions it remains possible that differential swings in marginals, or a sudden national surge in the wish to vote for some reason or other, could produce an unpredictable result. What we must avoid is any mood developing which makes the electorate think it must stop a large victory by Labour, as the electorate could always overdo it and give us a Conservative government.
The latest polling confirms my strongly held view that you should not call an election. I think the Opposition will find it difficult to sustain their "bottling out" charge when you have been very careful to say nothing yourself and have got on with governing the country in your own inimitable way.
John Redwood has been the Member of Parliament for Wokingham since 1987. First attending Kent College, Canterbury, he graduated from Magdalen College...
What we don’t know, but Commissar Brown fears, is just how bad things are going to be in this country during the next two years. There can be no other motivation for a Prime Minister with such a large majority calling an election less than half way through a parliament. Hasn’t Balls given the game away with his suggestion that the greater gamble (referring to the likelihood of electoral victory) would be in not going for an early election? The benefit to the country of all these self-interested shenanigans inspired by Brown has been, at long last, to see the Conservatives begin to look like a credible alternative government - no doubt much to the chagrin of Brown.
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I think as always your thoughts are spot on. My view is that Mr Brown will not risk an election especially if we campaigned on the basis of it doubling up as a referendum on the EU treaty(sic) because he would not feel in control of it and we all know how Mr Brown loves to be in control.
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So Mr Brown has bottled it!!
In true McCavity the cat style he makes the annoucement without having to face quetions etc. I see he made the annoucement through Browns Broadcasting Corp.(BBC) so much for telling parliament first! There I was thinking that Mr Brown had said he was moving away from Blair style politics and yet this is more Blair than Blair ever was…if that makes sense.
I agree with what Boris said…If Mr Brown bottles it, then he is a big girl’s blouse…well said Boris.
I hope Mr Cameron now takes every oppotunity to push Mr Brown on the sell out of our sovereignty to The United States of Europe.
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