To: Prime Minister
From: Senior Political Adviser

I am glad we can now put behind us the unfortunate election speculation. As I warned, there have been a few days of fallout, but it is much better than fighting an election and running the risk of losing our majority. The polling simply was not good enough to go for a November poll.

We now need to consider out fight back, to re-establish you as a statesman of substance, who rises above the day to day turbulence and who is strong and intent on rebuilding trust in politics. Cameron may be better at jokes, but we need to show you as the serious architect of a new politics. As the Tories temporarily have the ear of the media and the initiative we also for once have to consider what they might do next.

It is likely they will try to develop Cameron’s pressure for a referendum on the EU Constitution, because you have to go to the continent to complete the details of the revised Treaty of Amendment. The Tories are likely to try to widen this into an issue of trust, claiming you have broken your word on a referendum. They will refuse to accept that this Treaty no longer follows the Constitutional format and is therefore different. This case has been made more difficult for us to sustain since the publication of the Commons Report where Labour MPs unfortunately appear to have agreed that the Treaty of Amendment is largely the same as the old constitution.

We have in the past followed two different strategies to try to keep the Eurosceptic majority in the UK from uniting and getting more MPs elected to represent their view. The first has been to claim it is not an important or interesting issue, and to keep it out of the newspapers. We have been successful at this for a lot of the time, and have had some success in portraying Tories who are keen on the issue as out of touch. Keeping UKIP in play has also helped. To win in 2005 your predecessor decided to offer the referendum, for that ensured the issue would not be debated during the election. I know you had reservations about this realising that there would then have to be a day of reckoning, but you felt you had to go along with it to ensure victory. We are not going to keep the EU out of the papers for the next week or so, given the conjunction of a probable Tory campaign with events on the continent.

The second strategy has been to pick issues where we know the UK veto or power is not at risk, or where we are sure we can get some special treatment, and stage a Eurosceptic argument to show the sceptical majority that we are on their side. This was never very convincing when your predecessor did it, as most thought he was very keen on the EU. Your reputation is different, so it has more mileage for you. I do recommend that you remind the EU about the importance of the red lines, and brief the press that you are going to fight to make sure they are effective.

However, I am afraid that our credibility on this issue has been reduced by recent events. I am very worried about the poor performance of Mr Miliband. He was weak again at FCO Questions this week. I had thought he did not have his heart in this European argument because he is still a Blairite underneath, but I fear this week he simply lacked the gravitas and confidence to carry off the clever arguments the FCO had equipped him with. He did not carry our own side convincingly, let alone the external commentators and press.

I am coming to the conclusion that you need to make a dramatic gesture to show that you are a different kind of politician from the last PM, and that you do take the public seriously. You could dig in on red line issues where the EU is not prepared to help sufficiently, and then tell them that you will need to hold a referendum if you cannot get your way. This would have to be a referendum where the government recommended No? to the Treaty so you could then win it. That way it is a win/win for you. It shows you have listened to public suspicion of this Treaty. If the EU partners give a lot of ground you are a successful statesman who can shift the EU. If they do not you could hold a referendum you can win, where the Tories will have to meekly follow in your wake and share a platform on your terms.

You are right to praise courage. It is unfair that your past bravery on many issues has been temporarily forgotten thanks to the election issue. This would be a way to wow them all. If you like it I will send you thoughts on the real issues where too much power is being transferred that we could resist to make it a worthwhile diplomatic initiative.

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