To : Prime Minister
From: Senior Political Adviser

I was sorry you did not like my previous advice on the subject of the EU. I agree the course I suggested was not an easy one.
As you can now see from the last two days newspapers, your chosen course is not risk free either.

As predicted, your decision to back the Treaty negotiated by your predecessor and to get the EU to move on as quickly as possible, away from endless rows about powers and constitutions, has not worked in the British press. We now have a very angry Murdoch press. They feel let down, because they thought from your earlier Eurosceptic briefings you would put up more of a fight for British powers and interests than they now believe you managed. You may be able to get to the next election without any further constitutional demands from the EU, which will help, but so far the Murdoch press - and the Eurosceptic groups of course -have threatened to keep up the pressure against this Treaty until polling day.

Your strategy is to hold a long and detailed debate in the Commons and Lords in the first few months of the new session. Yes, this will enable you to say you believe in Parliament, and are taking Parliament seriously by giving it time to scrutinise the Treaty. You can deal with the reply that it is shadow boxing over a done deal by saying that nontheless Parliament has an important role in making sure the deal is implemented in a sensible way. You are right in assuming that we can win all the votes, as it looks clear that the Lib Dems with either Clegg or Huhne as Leader will continue their pro EU views and support us. This allows us to slip or play down the 30-40 Labour rebels on certain key issues and end up with a decent majority. Some of the Labour rebels are not very brave and would be attracted to you letting them off for the day of an important vote so they do not have to support the government. It has the double advantage for us that they will not be here making a noise, and we only lose one vote rather than the effective two if they turned up and voted against us. It is important not to try to use strong arm tactics on the rebels which could backfire, leaving us looking divided.

We have been briefing that the Conservatives are split on the EU, and as you remind us it would be an added bonus if long Parliamentary debate produced a split in Conservative ranks. I have to say I think the Conservatives are looking much more united, and many of them mean business in demanding a referendum. I know we have the helpful Kenneth Clarke quote, but we have no out of order words from anyone else. By having a long Parliamentary examination it gives the Opposition more time to rally support in the country for a referendum, and more time to try to pressurise our own MPs, many of whom feel guilty about our change of plan on a referendum. The Tories are going to be egged on and helped by the press. It is not in our interest to maximise the time available for the Opposition to disucss an issue where they are on the popular side, backed by most newspapers. We cannot even rely on the BBC to help us on this issue in the way we would like, as they have come under a lot of pressure for bias in reporting EU matters and are currently trying to even it up. They are also under a lot of pressure from their audiences, who do want a vote on the Treaty.

My advice remains that we cannot win a referendum in favour of the Treaty, and to lose one where we recommended acceptance would be very damaging to your authority. As you are against scuppering the Treaty by urging a vote against it - and cannot now change your public position on this - it becomes vital to avoid a referendum in the least damaging way. I think a long Parliamentary session on all this, maximising press and Opposition’s chances to keep this issue alive, is not a good idea. It is an issue of trust - as the Euroscpetics argue - and not one we wish to see embedded in the public consciousness.

I suggest offeirng the least time possible for scrutiny of the Treaty, and organising strong alternative stories on the days when important and newsworthy issues come up on the Treaty. Of course all Ministers must be boring and technical in everything they say on this issue. Above all we need to close down debate on a referendum, as this is an argument we cannot win from our current position. I heard and watched Mr Miliband this week. He is trying harder, and had marshalled the best arguments this time. Unfortunately it came over as clever lawyer with bad case.

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