The following is the kind of Memo a senior Labour adviser should send privately to the PM:

To Prime Minister
From Senior Political Adviser

This week-end you have to make a final decision on whether to hold a General Election this year or not. You need to tell Parliament at the earliest opportunity next week, as the uncertainty in the government and the country is now damaging, and is giving the impression that you are dithering. Possible elections erode your authority very rapidly. The civil service cannot get on with normal business if their minds are on preparing briefs for possible new incoming governments, and if they have to be cautious in support they give to Ministers if our announcements appear to be political rather than governmental.

It was a good idea to allow Young Turks to brief the media that there could be an early General Election to try to frighten the Conservatives, and to force them to rush out policy plans. Unfortunately it has now gone too far. As a result it has helped unite the Conservatives for a future contest and has led the media to become more critical of governmental statements and of photo opportunities you are making. It has also resulted in great pressure to hold an early election, with people saying you would look weak if you now backed away.

My advice is very strongly that you should not be swayed by this thinking. If you now decide against an early election there will be a few days of press froth, but we can spin quite legitimately that you never made any statement about an early election and always said you were getting on with the job of PM. Had you in public slapped down your eager supporters who wanted an early election we would get ourselves into the position of having to provide a running commentary on Election dates for the next two years, which would not be helpful. We might also restore some of the position on telling Parliament first if you told Parliament in an aside early next week, as people are becoming cynical about your wish to do politics differently in a post spin era.

The only reason to go this early is if you think you can win a larger majorirty than you currently enjoy. Clearly any outcome that entailed the election of a Conservative government, or the loss of an overall Labour majority in the Commons would be a disaster for you personally and for the Labour party. But winning a small majority below the one Tony Blair achieved would also be presented by many as a partial defeat, weakening your authority, leading more to question your judgement, and cutting your time in power by as much as the two and half years we would forego. The very Young Turks who now favour an early election, would start to coalesce around a younger replacement for you before the end of the next Parliament. We would also be much more vulnerable to rebellions if the majority is reduced. So far in this Parliament we have managed them well as it requires more than 35 Labour MPs to actually vote against before we could lose a vote.

So what is the prospect of you winning by more than in 2005? I have to tell you that the prospects are not good. The mood in the country is sceptical about all three main political parties. Abstention is likely to remain very high. We have to worry about differential abstention rates, as the evenings draw in and maybe the weather worsens. If Labour voters think it is in the bag because you have decided to go for an early win they might be lazy or casual about voting. The register is very out of date, so some voters will be disenfranchised.Meanwhile all those who have doubts about the government may be more galvanised into ensuring there is a stronger opposition - they might even overdo it.

We should also remember that the 2005 election was not a conventional election, with the two main parties fighting for a uniform and limited swing across the coutnry. Both our campaign and the Tories one put people off, but fortunately national campaigns did not have a huge impact. Instead there were wildly different swings in different parts of the country and even in adjacent seats. We lost some on swings of more than 20% against us. The Tories who won seats overall had a 10% swing against them to lose Solihul. Today the Tories have done more work in key marginals, and have learnt that they need to target and fashion local campaigns on the ground to convince people to go and vote in seats which can change hands. This is making some of our MPs in marginal seats very nervous, and they do not agree about the need for an early election.

The position in Scotland is not good. The SNP are so much stronger in polls than in 2005, and the honeymoon with the SNP executive continues. Whilst we will still keep many of our seats there, losing some will erode your authority, strengthen the forces against the Union, and divert attention to the Scottish issue which exposes the weakeness of our position over the representation of England.

We can carry on saying most people do not care about the EU issues, and concentrate on the NHS and schools, but as you know there is a vocal minority who care greatly about the EU Constitution. The Tories could try to turn this into a issue of trust, claiming you had broken your word from 2005 when you promised a referendum. Whilst we have a clever legal case about the differences, the polling shows it is not working. I sometimes wonder if David Miliband has his heart in trying to persuade the public that this latest Treaty is not the Constitution.It might be better to rush the Constitutional Treaty through next year before having an election, so we can claim it is a done deal. This autumn the argument for a referendum could lose us votes, and could help to undermine your reputation for strength and honesty.

We also need to remember that the Tories were in office for 17 years partly because they kept the opposition splilt between ourselves and Lib Dems. We have been able to do the same to them for the last 10. At the moment the Lib dems are facing a disastrous result, which will greatly help the Tories. If we delay there is the possibility the Lib Dems might find a way to recover some of their strength, or even realise they need to change their Leader.

You always said you would not go to the country unless you had been more than 10 points ahead for a decent period. We are not reliably 10 points ahead. I am worried by the volatility of the mood, and by the recent way the press has turned against you on Europe, on Iraq and on some of your cleverer press initiatives. I would urge caution. Why throw away two and half years of the job you have fought so hard to obtain?

It was sad listening to a surgeon turned government Minister (Lord Darzi) wriggling on the Today programme, unable to answer the easiest of questions. He may be a very good surgeon but he clearly struggles to understand how to reform the NHS and how to explain the reforms it needs.

He has famously told us previously that the days of the District General Hospital are numbered. Yet today he sought to expugn that comment, confining it to parts of London. Why didn’t he go into more detail about the dangers and drawbacks as he saw them of concentrating most health care into single monopoly hospitals serving quite large populations? Why has he now decided a world of greater choice and different types of health care provision is wrong? He cannot claim the future lies with a few excellent centres for cancer and cardiac work, and with plenty of smaller units for other kinds of treatment on the one hand, and then reassure us that the District General carrries on regardless on the other.

He was even more unconvincing about the timing of his announcement today, unable to deal with the obvious allegation that it is all part of a plan to say something warm and positive about the Health Service before an early election if the PM finally wants one.

He took a long time ruling out extra fees and charges in the NHS, when the BBC put to him that many surgeons working in the NHS think that is the way to change it.

Gordon Brown’s biggest problem is that he is turning out to be an unlucky Prime Minister. We’ve had fire, flood, pestilence and a bank run, and that’s just in the first three months. The British people need cheering up and they need to feel the sun is shining again.

Gordon Brown also has the problem that he is not surrounded by powerful senior politicians, capable of challenging him intellectually. Blair had Brown. Brown has Brown. There is no one else of equal stature, warning, advising, and getting the Prime Minister to think things through carefully.

The Telegraph newspapers laid on sandwiches, a large room, and a huge audience for their annual Conference debate. Ed Vaizey and I were the two MPs asked to explain how the Conservatives could beat Gordon Brown in a General Election.

When it came to a lively question and answer session it was apparent the audience was ready for the battle and knew they had to enter it with heads held high and with plenty of determination. It was clear that they were happy with the latest commitment to lower tax policies, and the strong campaign for a refererendum on the EU constitution. Irwin Stelzer wisely advised us to make the referendum issue one of trust - Gordon Brown broke his word given in the last Gneneral Election. We need to get home that simple message, that Gordon is all spin when it comes to the things that really matter.

There was some division of opinion over how bad Gordon’s economic record has been, but general agreement that the pension crisis is down to him and has damaged many people’s future or present retirement.

Readers of this site and of the press will know that the governemnt has been planning a retreat from Basra in stages for some time. We were briefed earlier this summer that first our forces would be concentrated at the base near the airport, withdrawing from the city centre, and then subsequently some forces would be withdrawn from Iraq altogether. We also were led to believe that the present Prime Minister is very keen to recreate Parliament’s primacy in hearing about and voting on matters of military deployment, so any statement about further withdrawals would be made to Parliament first.

It is no wonder people are cynical about this government when we awake this morning to a leading story, presumably from sources close, that troops will be withdrawn from the Basra base soon. Why did someone in government need to spin this story - without attribution or press conference - today of all days? Why can’t such an announcement await a Parliamentary statement on Monday? What does it add to the inspired leaks about withdrawal earlier this summer?

Could it be that the government was looking around for a story which might upstage the Conservative Conference? How does it relate to the Prime Minister’s stated wish to restore the importance of Parliament in our political life? Will there be a leak enquiry?

Today I spoke to a packed meeting in Blackpool on the need for a referendum on the so-called Amendment Treaty, the old Constitution in repackaged format. To a man and woman they naturally agreed.

We talked about what more we need to do to highlight the way this government has broken its word on granting a referendum. They promised us one before the last election, to avoid debate about this issue where they were at odds with most British people. Their trick worked. Now they refuse to honour their promise. No wonder people are so cynical about politicians.

Polling shows that around four out of five people think there should be referendum on this further large transfer of power from the UK to Brussels. We need to show the same tenacity in campaigning on this issue, as we did to save the pound a decade ago.

Everyone should sign up to the Sun and the Telegraph referenda petitions. Those involved in party campaigning should ensure good material is included in literature on why we must say "No" to the constitution, and how Labour has broken its promise on this crucial issue. All of us can urge our friend to sign the petitions. More need to bombard federalist MPs with their objections to this constitution. More should complain to Labour MPs about the way they have broken their election word. Some decent Labour MPs are breaking ranks and admitting that their government should hold a vote. We need more to do so. The Liberal Democrats calling for a referendum on In/out are trying to split the anti Constitution anti federalist vote and save their own skins. Remember they are always pro the EU having more power, and will vote with the Labour government when the Constitution comes before the House (assuming no early election to give us a chance to defeat them).

We should tell people that the sacrifice of 50 vetoes means many important areas where the British people and their elected representatives could no longer govern themselves. The amazing self amending nature of the Constitutional Treaty means we might never get a proper opportunity again to express a public view on how much power is to be transferred.

It is welcome news that a Conservative government would cut taxes on families, would raise the Inheritance Tax threshold, and would cut Stamp duty at the bottom end. These are all moves in the right direction.

What we need in the UK is an amendment to the Treasury model, to show how much extra revenue you can raise by lowering tax rates on profits and higher incomes. Whenever we have done it in the past the rich have paid more, and business has paid more. The same is true of the Irish and US experience, where they have cut taxes in recent years. It is a win win. Ireland has not only slashed its corporation tax rates compared to the UK - down to 12.5% - but they have enjoyed much stronger tax revenue growth and have increased public spending faster than us as a consequence over the last ten years.

It is high time the UK debate moved away from the pathetic Labour knee jerk response to any tax cut, that it is not affordable. The things that are not affordable are the tax rises that Labour are now imposing alongside their credit squeeze.

Gordon Brown is taking your money again. Today we are told by the BBC that total tax on a litre of petrol has risen to a massive 65 pence, (around ??3 a gallon in tax) compared with the 33 pence needed to pay for exploration, production, transport, refining and retailing of the fuel. It’s high time the petrol companies put the tax on the bill and on the pump price so all could see the extent of the great fuel rip off. Some people think high fuel prices are about the policies of oil companies - in the UK they are about a greedy government.

It would be easier to accept if the money was being well spent, but I fear it goes to more spin doctors, more ID cards, more regional government, more regulations and more bureaucracy. I don’t suppose we will see better roads and more trains for our money to cut the congestion which causes so much of the pollution. It is a tribute to this government’s incompetence that at a time when they are putting through such a large tax increase as 2p on every litre of petrol bought, they are busily closing hospital facilities and ushering in a period of restraint in some types of public spending.

Nor does all this tax stop people using the car, the van or the lorry. There is a simple reason. They have no choice. There aren’t enough trains to take the strain, and so often the only practical way of getting yourself and your goods to work and to market is to go by road. People do need to get the children to school, themselves to their employment, and do need to pick up the family shopping from the supermarket. They are not being wicked doing this by car - it is often the only way. Give us a break Gordon. Why not cut out a bit of the bureaucracy you have spawned during your ten years in power instead of taking more of our money. The manufacturing sector has to do things better and more cheaply each year - couldn’t government try that as well?