Comments on: The UK’s economic problems were made at home http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/07/09/the-uks-economic-problems-were-made-at-home/ Conservative Party Candidate for Wokingham Sat, 20 Mar 2010 16:56:39 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Matthew http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/07/09/the-uks-economic-problems-were-made-at-home/#comment-22295 Matthew Sun, 13 Jul 2008 17:46:34 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1173#comment-22295 John, could you comment on the debate that speculation cannot be behind the price rise in oil as it is wholly using futures contracts, which unless hedged in the physical market, do not impact on it, and further the lack of stocks (outside of government stockpiles) suggests that is not happening? reply: I have set out how and why I think there is a speculative element to the rise. John, could you comment on the debate that speculation cannot be behind the price rise in oil as it is wholly using futures contracts, which unless hedged in the physical market, do not impact on it, and further the lack of stocks (outside of government stockpiles) suggests that is not happening?

reply: I have set out how and why I think there is a speculative element to the rise.

]]> By: mikestallard http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/07/09/the-uks-economic-problems-were-made-at-home/#comment-22117 mikestallard Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:31:06 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1173#comment-22117 John, you know a lot more about money than I ever shall. So your remarks on the threat of a downturn being more important than inflation must be taken seriously. However, I would like to remind you and your readers that the Labour Party is now £25,000,000 in debt and seems to have little chance of recouping this from major donors. Its traditional membership melted away ages ago too. That leaves the TU people who have their own ideas on how to cope with inflationary problems as they affect their own members..... John, you know a lot more about money than I ever shall. So your remarks on the threat of a downturn being more important than inflation must be taken seriously.
However, I would like to remind you and your readers that the Labour Party is now £25,000,000 in debt and seems to have little chance of recouping this from major donors. Its traditional membership melted away ages ago too. That leaves the TU people who have their own ideas on how to cope with inflationary problems as they affect their own members…..

]]> By: adam http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/07/09/the-uks-economic-problems-were-made-at-home/#comment-22113 adam Wed, 09 Jul 2008 15:22:01 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1173#comment-22113 good speach by Sammy Wilson today in the cost of living debate good speach by Sammy Wilson today in the cost of living debate

]]> By: Neil Craig http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2008/07/09/the-uks-economic-problems-were-made-at-home/#comment-22101 Neil Craig Wed, 09 Jul 2008 10:11:04 +0000 http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/?p=1173#comment-22101 "Of course the arrival of 2,500 million Indians and Chinese at the western party will make a long term difference to the prices of commodities relative to other things" This depends very much on to what extent commodity production is a fixed sum. It may seem intuitive that the amount of oil in the world is fixed, assuming abiotic oil isn't involved, but the amount extractable depends very much on technology which in turn is enhanced by having 2.5 billion extra investors. It also depends on the amount the US refuses, on environmental grounds, to exploit, which is slightly dependent on its place in the world pecking order. Beyond the energy commodities are all, to a large extent, substitutes for each other & we know that it is possible to produce as much nuclear energy as the world could want. Currently the west (including Japan & S Korea) have a technological edge over China & India there but they are clearly going to catchn up on technological quality as well as quantity. As Julian Simon proved in his famous bet with Paul Ehrlich, commodity prices, vis a vis GNP have been & will remain a decreasing cost. The only possible exception being in countries which are in comparative economic free fall compared to the world average - which brings us back to us. All the stuff about "the age of cheap energy/food etc is over" is rubbish. If only we would just stop kowtowing to the "Greens". The age of cheap energy, commodities & wealth of all sorts has barely begun, at least for China & India and we are currently making an even greater historical error than the Chinese did in 1430 when they banned exploration & open sea shipping & gave the world to the Europeans. “Of course the arrival of 2,500 million Indians and Chinese at the western party will make a long term difference to the prices of commodities relative to other things”

This depends very much on to what extent commodity production is a fixed sum. It may seem intuitive that the amount of oil in the world is fixed, assuming abiotic oil isn’t involved, but the amount extractable depends very much on technology which in turn is enhanced by having 2.5 billion extra investors. It also depends on the amount the US refuses, on environmental grounds, to exploit, which is slightly dependent on its place in the world pecking order. Beyond the energy commodities are all, to a large extent, substitutes for each other & we know that it is possible to produce as much nuclear energy as the world could want. Currently the west (including Japan & S Korea) have a technological edge over China & India there but they are clearly going to catchn up on technological quality as well as quantity.

As Julian Simon proved in his famous bet with Paul Ehrlich, commodity prices, vis a vis GNP have been & will remain a decreasing cost. The only possible exception being in countries which are in comparative economic free fall compared to the world average – which brings us back to us.

All the stuff about “the age of cheap energy/food etc is over” is rubbish. If only we would just stop kowtowing to the “Greens”. The age of cheap energy, commodities & wealth of all sorts has barely begun, at least for China & India and we are currently making an even greater historical error than the Chinese did in 1430 when they banned exploration & open sea shipping & gave the world to the Europeans.

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