Sep 28 2009
Germany’s two main parties slump to just 57% of the vote
It was a dreadful night for the SDP, down at 23%. Frau Merkel’s CDU also lost votes and vote share, coming out with just one third of the votes. The Greens, and the radical left took away SDP votes. The Free Democrats scythed in to the CDI position. The parties who were not part of the governing coalition surged from 30% to 43% between them.
What were German electors trying to tell the two main parties? They were saying that their efforts to appear the same as each other and to govern together in a consensual coalition on the so called centre ground was the last thing voters wanted. They did not think it was good for Germany. The larger group of critics of the Grand coalition sided with those who want less government, lower taxes and more freedom. The smaller group sided with those who want more government and more centralised leadership and more green policy.
The most exciting thing in the election was the great success of Guido Westerwelle, the leader of the Free Democrats, in boosting his party’ s support. He was strong and interesting, with something different to say. He condemned the car scrappage scheme as an expensive nonsense. He called for a cut in the top rate of tax from 45% to 35% to make Germany more competitive and enterprising, and a cut in the lower tax rate from 14% to 10% to cut poverty and boost private spending. He said of the Grand coalition it was only grand at “raising taxes and accumulating debt. It has frittered away billions in tax money”
The Free democrats want to strengthen civil liberties, reduce state power and keep nuclear power stations. Much of what they say I find attractive, though doubtless we would disagree on the subject of the EU. Their views of Trade Unions have already been slapped down by Frau Merkel, as they were not conducive to sensible relations between government and Unions.
From Germany’s point of view I hope Frau Merkel adopts Herr Westerwelle’s programme. It could provide a shot in the arm to Germany’s private sector. From the point of view of the Uk trying to compete with them, I hope she carries on with her dull, ineffective, job destroying Eurocentric top down heavy handed nonsense, which will limit Germany’s capacity to raise her growth rate and awaken from her torpor. The last thing we need to add to our economic woes is a Germany with much lower taxes. I suspect Frau Merkel will decide to go with the subsidy and high spending consensus, making it difficult for her to also run with the Free Democrats more exciting tax ideas as she will see it. European governments usually choose policies which make their people poor and in chains. The eventual coalition may well be CDU/Free Democracts as most expect, but the Free Democrats programme will likely be much diulted.
14 Responses to “Germany’s two main parties slump to just 57% of the vote”
John Redwood has been the Member of Parliament for Wokingham since 1987. First attending Kent College, Canterbury, he graduated from Magdalen College...
JR: “Germany’s two main parties slump to just 57% of the vote”
A lesson here for the British two main political parties.
JR: “..though doubtless we would disagree on the subject of the EU.”
Well, there you have it! People know that democracy in the European Union is a fraud. You only have to look at farce in Ireland for an object lesson.
Meanwhile ‘mainstream’ politicians who have been party to the current situation, throw their hands up – when those hands are not in the tax payers pocket – in mock horror, ‘nobody is voting for us anymore’.
It’s because we don’t like being taken for mugs.
The Cleggite Liberals are the nearest thing in British politics to the FDP (nuclear power aside, though Westerwelle is probably correct in his stance)
Reply: If only! They are the opposite on tax
Is this really right – ‘We’, as in the UK, don’t compete with Germany do we? Individual firms compete with other individual firms, perhaps in Germany, perhaps in the UK or elsewhere. Many British businesses have their own German arms, and many British people work for German firms. A dynamic low-tax Germany would be a boost to those of us who want to see a return to a dynamic low-tax UK. A sclerotic Germany / Europe would make life worse not better for us in Britain. It would also enable Brown and his ilk to claim that his tax, borrow and spend policies are followed elsewhere so must be right.
Reply: We compete directly. We need to make our manufacturing base more cost efficient than Germany’s in areas like vehicle production, where Uk firms compete head to head with German ones
james harries Reply:
September 28th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
A dynamic low cost low tax Germany would make us raise our game.
So what’s wrong with a dynamic..etc.?
Why has JR written: The last thing we need to add to our economic woes is a Germany with much lower taxes. ?
Answer: envy?
But do we really care (since the current and capital accounts balance as a matter of double entry bookkeeping) whether the factory down the road is owned by the lady at the corner shop or some dentist in Bratislava?
Let them get rich! Then I can sell more stuff to them!
Richard Reply:
September 29th, 2009 at 7:10 am
I agree. A prosperous Germany (in fact prosperity anywhere else) is a net benefit to us. We should welcome the CDU-FDP coalition and the end of an SPD presence in the German govt.
I am a German taxpayer and voter, so I am qualified to comment on this.
The important bit is the socialists are out of national government! (here a smiley turning somersaults for joy.) You don’t often see Dr. Merkel grinning, but she was doing it last night. Now she can get on with what she wanted to do all along.
The sad bit is the ultra-left, Die Linken, have got a toehold in the Bundestag. These are a combination of SED survivors and the loony left. We can only hope the government just ignores them (there is a precedent for this).
The federal system, the 5% hurdle and the practice of coalition were designed and installed by the occupying forces after the war. It seems strange to Brits, but it works for Germany. Most Germans would tell you it is more democratic than the British system. If you are interested you can read the constitution, which is a fine and sensible document. (I had to read it and answer questions on it when I took up citizenship.)
Don’t think of the FDP as another party, we regard it as a pragmatic, capitalist, right-wing extension of the CDU/CSU.
As for the EU, politicians talk a lot, but if you watch what they actually do the you can see that the UK is much more obedient to every whim of the EU than Germany or France. Strange, that.
The demise of the SDP means that Peer Steinbruck will no longer be the German Finance Minister. His hostile attitude to Britain will be no loss as this article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph shows.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100001043/germany-declares-economic-war/
Dear John,
This sounds a bit like sour grapes. The victory of the FDP is the best news in a long time. They certainly are not like the Lib Dems! Their tax reduction promises should spur Cameron on to do the same! You of all people should know that competition is good. That is exactly the problem with the EU: competition is stifled.
I hope this is the start of a reaction against ‘principle-free focus group’ politics where one simply discovers what the public is saying and then merely repeats it back to them whilst smearing the opposition as reactionary and refusing to seriously debate them. This was spectacularly successful in the late 1990’s but I honestly hope people have broken the trance.
I have to say, whilst it seems obvious that Mr Cameron will win come next May (althought you never know what may happen) the turnout and proportion of the overall vote will be very interesting. He may well be the Uber-Thatcherite of my particular choice, or he maybe a centerist Crypto-Heathite. I honestly don’t know.
I suspect if the British LibDems had gone this way they would now be leading in the polls over both Labour & Conservative. When they, being at about 22% in the polls, ditched Kennedy at the same time the Conservatives adopted Cameron they were replacing the most popular party leader with a couple of stuffed shirts. The Conservatives are not ahead because they are liked but because they are the best alternative being offered.
All the policies you mention are traditional liberal ones but the “Lib Dems” here sold their principles to attract eco-fascists & other sorts of nuts too silly even for Labour, to such an extent that free marketism is officially “illiberal” by their Orwellian rewriting & they are committed to blackouts & poverty.
I should also point out that this result matters in Germany purely because they have a PR system. Those results here would simply result in there being a CDU majority over an SPD opposition with about a dozen others. Barriers to entry in economics stifle innovation & that is at least equally true in politics.
JR: The last thing we need to add to our economic woes is a Germany with much lower taxes.
Surely this is a typo? Please!
reply: I am trying to make the point forcefully that lower taxes work!
The Pirate Party also picked up some votes as well 2%
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/sep2009/gb20090928_444689.htm
Economics is not a zero sum game. A German economic recovery will help our exports and boost our own economy. So let’s hope they DO cut taxes.
Let’s muddle geography and politics.
Why isn’t Japan keen to join China? They are both Asiatic Societies with people who, according to Mao, look the same to Americans. Together, Japanese and Chinese would be a much more powerful bloc.
Why don’t Pakistan and India rejoin as at Independence? Their common ancestry as part of the British Raj and the fact that they look the same tyo Americans must mean that they are much more powerful as one Union.
And so on.
(Bang goes the only argument for Britain to be part of a Europe which is, in every way, totally different from us. Oh- we are all pink and we look the same to Americans.) (Isn’t that racism???)
Without Germany, Europe must be simply a mass of failing and failed states?