Nov 23 2009
The Mori poll
The latest Mori poll shows the Conservative lead over Labour down to 6%. Since September on this poll Labour has gained and the Lib dems have lost support.
The poll shows the two and half main parties accounting for just 85% of the firm voting intentions. 15% favoured others. This included 3% for Scottish and Welsh nationalists, 3% for Greens, 3% for UKIP and 2% for BNP.
Any sensible person has been saying for months that a Conservative victory cannot be assumed, given the large number of seats the Conservatives need to win and the movement of political views away from the main parties that has been going on for some time. This was always going to be a very hard fought election, with scope for an indecisive result which shifts power from electors to the politicians in a hung Parliament.
What these polls also show is that UKIP and the Greens are unlikely to win any seats. Their prospective voters can back their chosen cause, or they can vote for either Labour or the Conservatives to help choose the government. If they do the former they will have to accept whatever others decide to do. The nationalist vote is concentrated so they have more chance of winning something even under a First Past the Post system.
John Redwood has been the Member of Parliament for Wokingham since 1987. First attending Kent College, Canterbury, he graduated from Magdalen College...
Your final paragraph betrays your fear that UKIP will gain votes at your party’s expense. Such a pity that your party’s leadership has alienated much of the eurosceptic vote. Incidentally, I didn’t think that you favoured proportional representation but your final sentence begins to make the case for it.
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Richard Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 9:19 am
A vote for UKIP is a vote to keep Gordon Brown in office. UKIP is a single issue pressure group. like the greens and the BNP – it attributes all the problems of the UK to membership of the EU & says the solution to all problems is withdrawal. Its not a serious political party – don’t waste your vote.
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Andrew Grainger Reply:
December 4th, 2009 at 12:44 am
I totally agree. Look, I dislike many things about the great EU juggernaut, but for God’s sake don’t let that make you vote for an egotistical crank like Nigel Farage and let the Seudo Socialist control freak Blair Brown project back in to misgovern us for 5 more drifting, deluded, pie in the sky, idealistically led, state control years. Vote where it will count. Vote for a change to this nonsense. VOTE CONSERVATIVE NOT UKIP!!!!!
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I honestly think that a lot of floating tories lost heart when Mr Cameron backed away from the Lisbon treaty referendum pledge and hence the poll results. This did not make him look overly sincere in the minds of some people.
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Richard Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 9:15 am
A referendum on the Lisbon treaty would be a pointless gesture, its already law, and the law won’t be unmade by a ‘No’ vote.
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Stuart Fairney Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 5:40 pm
True enough, but the House of Commons retains the right to withdraw from treaty obligations by majority vote, ergo this is not final. The House of Commons makes laws and it can un-make them. To believe otherwise is to believe the spin. The power is ours, don’t be deceived otherwise.
In addition, would it not give Mr Cameron enormous negotiating leverage?
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Richard Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Not true. the UK is now a signatory to a treaty, like it or not. There are 2 choices: attempt to renegotiate as best we can or leave the EU. Pushing for a futile referendum on a treaty already ratified will get us nowhere.
Stuart Fairney Reply:
November 26th, 2009 at 7:32 am
This cannot be true. Supporters wish to portray this as a fait accompli, but it is a fundamental principle that past House of Commons decisions cannot bind future ones, ergo, we could simply vote to withdraw from the treaty on the basis it’s ratification in Britain was unlawful insofar as the promised referendum was not delivered. What do you imagine the EU could realistically do? Their big scary sanctions are empty threats to a large member country. This is how the Italians and French simply ignore aspects of the EU they find bothersome.
And anyway, would it not give the negotiators more moral weight if they were backed by a clear mandate from the people accordingly? It would also be a healthy wake-up call to the bureaucrats that in a metaphorical sense anyway, the ‘people were at the gates’ and the days of decadence were truly over.
What is truly futile is saying we will try to renegotiate but then go into the room naked as without the mandate the item wouldn’t even make the agenda.
The biggest threat is: Conservatives win on votes, win comprehensively in England, practically wipe out Labour in Southern England, but Labour still get the most seats due to their rotten boroughs in Scotland and the North. The Liberals then team up with Labour and bring in PR. Brown is a late convert to PR, seeing this as a way of keeping the Conservatives out – which for him is always more important than devising the best constitution for the Country. We need an outright majority and the very first job is to pass legislation to ensure that all Westminster seats in future elections have approx the same number of electors.
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Liz Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 11:05 am
Why has the Electoral Commission -supposedly impartial – allowed a situation to continue for many years whereby yet another election will be fought with the Labour Party having a huge advantage and the Conservartives having a large handicap. Why have the Conservatives not highlighted this more, got very angry and made more fuss – in fact I wish they would make more fuss about anything at all! It is supposed to be a fair election not a horse race! I fear that the result will be just as you outline.
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brian kelly Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:54 pm
It is something I have never understood, either.
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APL Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Liz: “Why have the Conservatives not highlighted this more, got very angry and made more fuss.”
The Tory party has behaved in exactly the same manner with policies.
They are utterly useless as a political force.
Absent without leave for the last decade.
Then the party or people in the party have the audacity to claim the people are incorrect for not supporting them.
In order to be inspired one has to see something inspiring.
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A.Sedgwick Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Yes quite, the expenses scam is the visible sign of how rotten our system has become. Far too many MPs, 59 Scottish MPs doing next to nothing apart from running England, Parliament basically works a 3 day week for 30 weeks a year, 700 life peers – what a gravy train. PR is far from perfect but is has some connection with one man one vote.
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What is encouraging about this poll from Mori, is that it only references those with firm voting convictions. So it is quite likely that the only real news here is that Labours vote has started to strengthen. I do feel the Sun, Brown spelling row, did Labour a lot of good and did not help us. Sadly if we don’t get more of our vote out and firm up our 3-11% or so of likely, but not certain voters, then we may end up with that most unhealthy of beasts, a “hung parliament”. Short of a Labour win, a hung parliament is by far the worse option. I can recall the Lib-Lab pact (yes I’m that old)
And it was one fudge after another. We need good euro-sceptic government in this country and as David rightly said yesterday, we need to get our economy going. My wife is a long time dark-green, but even she has realised that the Conservatives will be far better for both the economy and the environment than Labour. I also note that nobody I know has been asked about their voting intentions since we became active on the internet. The pound is weak against the Euro, regardless of our feelings about the E.U. whilst this situation continues we have a competitive edge in the trading block, which I believe most of us wanted the Common Market to be. Those who are thinking about wasting their votes should pause for thought and ask themselves how they would feel if on the day after the GE Labour or a Labour-Lib pact was ruining our nation for another term. Frankly I am looking into moving to NZ ,which really would be a sad admission that the socialists have killed our economy and the meaning of being British. Think Once, Think Twice, but vote Conservative.
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tim78945 Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:44 am
It is a sad reflection of the democratic process that the Conservatives’ rallying cry seems to be increasingly, please vote for us, even if you do not agree with us, because the alternative would be worse. Rather than asking voters to vote tactically for them, why not rather give the voters what they want: an EU referendum.
Had the Conservatives been able to give us a vote on Lisbon pre-ratification then the inevitable No vote would have seen the other 26 members forging ahead with the creation of the European state and Britain would have had to negotiate its membership status.
Post ratification the future government, if it is Conservative, is actually in a much better position because it can choose an opportune moment for re-negotiation, when they have tackled the UK debt problem. So why the pussyfooting around? Until they come clean it is every person’s duty to vote according to their convictions to defend the sovereignty of their country. That tactical decision must rest with the Conservatives themselves, rather than expecting the voters to understand what they are really thinking. What is this, manifesto by osmosis?
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Ross J Warren Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:19 pm
It is a sad reflection of the democratic process, that a minority of people feel they should be allowed to get away with undermining the very same Democratic process to get a policy that would not be sensible at this stage in the economic cycle.
It is a reflection of the lack of morality of a small minority of UKIP and “others” activists that they believe it is right and proper to highjack every available thread at Conservative home as an example, in an attempt to undermine the grass roots opinion, which they do not represent. It is sad that democrats are forced to engage in fighting off this kind of abuse of the democratic process on a post by post basis. We should of course be concentrating on all policies rather than being emotionally blackmailed by a few thousand disaffected people at most, in this way. D.C. is not going to give into such people, and frankly you can vote wherever you like. However those who don’t vote Conservative have no place in this party and increasingly will find they are unwelcome in our company. It is very sad that UKIP doesn’t get it, but then have you looked at their prospective leaders, only one seems to understand what being an anti-European party should mean. One possible leader alone seems to have the strength of character not to turn an E.U, job into a lottery win. It is to be regretted that so few people understand that UKIP is only a lobby group. As it is David is now speaking to the CBI, which is way more important, than the silly whining of a impatient few.
Economic recovery is by far the most important thing right now. Way more important than a premature and destabilising in/our referendum.
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waramess Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 9:36 am
So, UKIP are wrong and you are right?
UKIP will benefit from Tory supporters’ dissatisfaction and not from support for their own policies.
The Tories would do well to spend any further time after the next election, if still in opposition, to seriously dwell on this.
Ross J Warren Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
So, UKIP are wrong and you are right?
Well of course we believe that to be true. UKIP seem to support a self destructive Non-negotiated withdraw from the E.U. I would not dignify such a narrow minded or wrong idea with the word policy.
“The Tories would do well to spend any further time after the next election, if still in opposition, to seriously dwell on this.”
This is rather typical of the kind of emotional blackmail that UKIP always seem to stoop to. David Cameron, would be a very weak leader indeed, to give way on this issue. UKIP might like to pick their leader without imploding if they can.
Ross J Warren Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Tim I should add that I am not referring to you personally in the above post.
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brian kelly Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:01 pm
Nick Clegg has signalled that he will support the major party if the election is ‘hung’. The two most likely outcomes are an outright conservative win or the conservatives being the major party.
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Ross J Warren Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Lets hope and do everything in our power to get that outright win.
Nick will be after PR I imagine.
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It’s a shame that all those who don’t agree with any candidate offered in their constituency are effectively disenfranchised.
I don’t want PR, because any list system effectively hands power to the party Whips.
A “none of the above” box would be a start, but how to make it work if this option polled higher than the leading candidate? I suggest that in this circumstance the leading candidate be returned to Westminster, but prohibited from either voting for any bill or holding any Party office. If the MP in question wanted to improve his status, he could call another by-election at his own (or Party) expense.
It would mean that the constituency would have representation within Whitehall, but the party would not be able to claim a mandate for a minority “winner”.
We also need each consitituency to have roughly the same number of voters, otherwise FPTP will always be unbalanced.
Can’t see any Government allowing this, though.
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If they do the latter, ie vote Labour, LibDem or Conservative (& a squeezed Green or BNP vote would largely go to the first 2) they not only “have to accept what others decide to do” but are endorsing it. The common element proving how very far from a democracy this country is.
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The question is why was that poll not put out the weekend before?
I expect as there was two polls out showing a Tory lead of 10/11% that no one would have excepted it, so they sat on it for 7 days.
So lets see the polls that come out next weekend, and see if the TV gives them the same coverage as this one.
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It’s a pity that Hague made such a fool of himself trying to be “one of the boys.” He would still be the tory leader and would come across as more trustworthy than the present incumbent. Not everyone I speak to wants to come out of the EU, but even the ones who want to stay in say that they would like a refendum. On another tack, I can understand dedicated labour voters not wanting to vote for the tories. What I can’t understand is them still voting for a party that contains “Brown the Incompetent” and “Mandelson (word left out)” (Mori poll)
Reply: Mr Hague does not want a referendum on the EU or Lisbon.
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A.Sedgwick Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:56 pm
I agree, William Hague seems to have changed from the blunt Yorkshireman of the people into a regular, party line politician. His defence of the non referendum policy was without intellect or political logic, qualities he used to exude through his whole body.
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Brigham Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Yes it does seem as if once somebody gets onto the front bench(shadow or government) they appear to be following a “hidden agenda” I don’t suppose we shall ever know the ins and outs of it. It is for important people not us “plebs”
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I am at a loss to what the Conservative party strategy is at the moment.
The country is being governed by a DEEPLY unpopular man and party, yet in the main the Tories seem to be hiding and hoping to get peoples vote by default.
I have always been a Conservative voter but I dismay at how poorly a once well oiled machine fails so dismally to sell its message. The odd occasions it does put its head above the parapet, within hours some error in either calculation or research is highlighted by the other parties and we go backwards.
The party is FULL of well known and mainly respected people included yourself (J Redwood). With almost 5 years of preparing why is the party not bombarding the media with its wealth of talent and selling the message to the country? I could understand holding back when the election was years off but with only months left there is no excuse !!
If you blow this chance to govern by infighting (Europe) or ineptitude in media management, I fear what the country will look like after a further 5 years of Labour or a hung parliament.
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“…the movement of political views away from the main parties that has been going on for some time.”
Pardon ?
It’s the other way around, actually. The main parties have been moving away from our political views. I don’t mind if Mr Cameron went to Eaton, or if he was a member of the Bullingdon Club. I DO care when he deceives us that he is something he is not.
It seems that finally the people have sussed out that the Conservatives aren’t a true alternative but a party machine acceptable to the entrenched socialist political establishment.
I am the archetypal Mondeo man (yes. I do drive one) and not one person in my circle is going to vote Tory.
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Simon Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:00 pm
I find that as well. Most of the people I know are self employed / small business types and not one of them is going to vote for any of the main three parties, they are mainly UKIP with a few BNP. I often wonder who all these people are who will vote for the main three and get more of the same. Public sector workers etc I suppose.
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APL Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Kevin Peat: “Pardon? It’s the other way around, actually.”
Exactly. Mr Redwood is always eager to tell us how the voting population has got it wrong on this or that issue and should adopt the policy put forward by the Tory party.
The truth is as you say, it should be the other way round. The Tory party policy should reflect the opinions of its members …
But of course it can’t in the first instance because policy, such as it is, is formulated in CCO and handed down on tablets of, I was going to say Stone but I think Cast Pig iron would be more accurate.
The promises and policy are thus brittle and shatter or are disguarded at a moments notice.
In the second reason is because being in the European Union means the Tory Party must take it policy intitiative from Brussels.
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I won’t vote Labour or Lib Dem, but why should I vote Conservative?
Betrayed on the “cast-iron” promise of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty by ALL THREE big parties.
Discriminated against with fewer and inferior political rights than Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – all three big parties opposing an English Parliament and the restoration of political equality between all UK citizens.
When it doesn’t matter which of the big parties get in because they’re all essentially the same, it doesn’t matter if we express our support for smaller parties with genuine principles like the English Democrats or UKIP.
It strikes me that the choice is between the Lib, Lab and Con wings of the Government Party, or the grassroots opposition standing up for the ordinary citizens of this country.
No contest.
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I have surfed a number of sites, particularly tabloid sites, and the polls do not reflect what the people are saying. Many NL and Tory members are continuing to defect to UKIP.
Indicators are showing UKIP is breaking through and is well placed to upset the major parties stranglehold over the electorate.
UKIP will give what no major party will, a withdraw from the EU.
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I’m sorry, but I cannot agree with your position. Politically, at this time, my overwhelming desire is to get out of the EU and I am simply not prepared to support any party which is prepared to continue with the present arrangements, albeit with some minor changes, if they can be negotiated.
There seems a good possibility of a hung parliament, and if UKIP manages to get a good vote, even if they don’t get any seats, the Tories will then seriously need to reconsider their position before any subsequent general election. Potential UKIP voters will then have seen that maybe there is a chance of some seats, and the Tories will have noticed that they are haemorrhaging votes to UKIP.
So in effect, I’m looking forward to the election after next as it is unlikely that a hung parliament will hast more than a year or so.
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Mr. Redwood is a good party man and it’s not surprising that he would argue as he has.
Unfortunately, for some people – perhaps many – the twists and turns of the Tory party on this issue have just become too much to tolerate.
For nearly thirty years we’ve been hearing how they will negotiate hard, not permit any more surrenders, adopt a really EUrosceptic approach, etc etc.
But every time it’s put to the test, the outcome is another giveaway of our freedom, our sovereignty, our independence, and our democracy.
I’m afraid it has now reache a point where I say “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me fifty times, shame on me”.
I will be fooled – and shamed – no longer.
Probably UKIP will not win any seats in the UK parliament, but a million or two votes for them will certainly deprive the Tories of a few seats. It seems the only way to make them listen. We really do care about our country; we really don’t want it given away over our heads; we really do want a say in how it’s governed.
Reply: What makes you think the Tory leadership will listen to UKIP rather than to the Greens and Lib dems who will be much more numerous?
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Freddy Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
“Reply: What makes you think the Tory leadership will listen to UKIP rather than to the Greens and Lib dems who will be much more numerous?”
I would hope they would have the sense to recognise that the people they are losing to UKIP are natural Tory voters, which floating Greens and LibDems are not.
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Freddy Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:32 pm
We keep being told that elections are won and lost by a relatively small number of floating voters in a relatively small number of marginal constituencies.
But I suspect that, sooner or later, this conventional wisdom is going to be overturned by the first party to remotivate all those people who currently are not bothering to vote.
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Mike Paterson Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 12:24 am
Because most UKIP voters are Tories, that’s why! Really! Why not add Labour to your list? They’re more numerous than UKIP too. That really is a poor reply, JR.
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JimF Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
The Tories will listen to UKIP because they will have lost votes to them. They will not by and large have lost votes to the Greens or LibDems.
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Andrew Duffin Reply:
November 25th, 2009 at 9:13 am
I don’t expect them to listen to UKIP.
I do expect them to listen to voters.
And if the only way to get them listen is to vote for someone else, then that is what I will do.
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It is a shame that the Poll numbers are moving in the wrong direction for your party JR. I really thought you were on your way to the “tipping point”. You will have to change your marketing strategy substantially if you want another go at it. I hope your policy wonks are up for it. They really should study “Memetics”. I think NuLabour are already deploying the technique, hence the poll ratings.
If you don’t make the tipping point before the election, and Labour win; I fear the UK will embed Marxism and Keynesism for a very long time. The Conservative Party might as well liquidate itself and its members go off and get a proper jobs.
If your not up with “Memetics”, and the guy who discovered it (Dawkins: The Selfish Gene) have a look at the following. It takes from biology, viral gene mutation and re-engineers it to cultural, viral meme mutation.
PS. As the world has now accepted that nothing will, or has to be decided at Copenhagen, it is safe for lots of world leaders to turn up their for the jolly, with little political risk.
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I find this poll profoundly depressing as it seems to indicate that anyone that even suggests that things need to change loses votes. If that is the case then Britain is heading for collapse and a very rapid pace.
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The current poll differential reflects badly on the Tories.
Labour over the last twelve years have wrought terrible damage on the UK and yet the Tories are still struggle to hold onto a tenuous lead in the polls.
When will we see some real opposition?
Why do you let labour get away with saying that the Tory IHT plans will only benefit the top 2000 richest? I think you’ll find it’s rather more than that. For myself I prefer UKIP’s tax policies.
Why do you persist with A lists? – it’s just pandering to the PC agenda propagated by the LibLeft.
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It seems to me that if Cameron wants to retain the trust and the votes of many of his potential supporters he needs to stand-up for his electors and state that he is going to regain all powers ceded to the EU by the Lisbon treaty (and better still all powers ceded since the single european act, or better again to leave the EU altogether) – which of course requires the will to do something and ultimately the will to take unilateral action – instead of letting matters rest here.
Currently Cameron has effectively made the decision to take a policy position that will enhance support for more eurosceptic parties. Who can blame those electors for voting for what they do want rather than what they don’t want. You are quite correct about the practical consequences – but this cuts both ways – a party with the wrong policies cannot expect to win.
It is up to conservative MPs to put pressure on the party leadership to change – or to get new leadership.
We cannot afford to wait until the parliament after next for action on the EU issue; as the EU will have got its tentacles further in, aided by passivity of the conservative party leadership. Of course it is ultimately the treachery of Lib, Lab and Heath that got us here in the first place.
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Dear John,
My feeling is that the EU have introduced a trojan horse into the Tory ranks in the form of Ken Clarke. I am afraid that Cameron has lost all credibility and prospects for a resounding Tory victory are now slim. I would suggest that the best solution would be a leadership challenge. With the present regime I do not think you will have much chance of becoming a member of the cabinet, and even if you were, you would be in a difficult position every time the issue of Europe would come up, which will be frequently as it interferes in so many things. So what have you got to loose? You would certainly be a far more impressive leader than the present incumbent, with real understanding of the economy. Moreover, if a substantial majority of the parliamentary party is eurosceptic, surely they should back you. I know of course that you stood up once before against John Major and lost. But you were right then and the election was lost. I know is late in the day, but there is still 6 months to go and a new leader often has a honeymoon period.
Reply: I have no intention of doing any such thing.I dislike the way you express your views in a careerist way, when what matters to me is the outcome and the policy we follow, not who has what job.
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A.Sedgwick Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:08 pm
I don’t agree at all with your suggestion about DC, apart from it being a complete non starter. He was properly elected and for me leaders should remain in power until they resign or lose an election. As regards the highly affable Ken Clarke it is most revealing that Cameron chose him as shadow business secretary with all his EU baggage rather than our more qualified host.
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backofanenvelope Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm
It’s rather unfortunate that so many of us (the voters) don’t like your policies and really don’t care that much about the outcome.
I have no doubt the Tories will win next year; but it won’t do most of us much good and in the longer term, it won’t do much for you either.
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Acorn Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:21 pm
Oh dear John. “not who has what job”, may not matter to you, but it does matter to the voters.
I am not into crass television but; you should study the likes of the X Factor and Strictly come whatsit. The Producers of these programmes are experts at manipulating situations to their advantage. The contestants are pawns in their master plan for world domination of TV schedules across the planet. Even if a contestant looses on the programme, they win outside the programme. There is a “win win” outcome for everyone involved; even the phone company.
They tell you in business school that “win win” contracts are the the ultimate. Where is the Conservative political equivalent for me as a floating voter? Where is your strategy for working the X Factor crowd for a “win win” at the ballot box? The answer is the Conservatives don’t have one.
Until your party understands why the X Factor crowd makes a premium rate phone call to vote for a contestant. Until your party understand how the producers of such programmes get the crowd involved and feeling part of the action; you will not take the next election from Labour.
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APL Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Acorn: “The Producers of these programmes are experts at manipulating situations to their advantage.”
Acorn, that worked out well for the Tories with their advertising executive chief executive didn’t it?
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It is clear from the many comments everywhere on the blogosphere that many conservative voters are unhappy with David Cameron’s ‘no referendum’ statement, as also, with his rather anodyne intentions to restore some powers back to us. I do understand his difficulty – the treaty is a fact – but I think that, to reclaim those votes, he needs to provide stronger, but realistic, messages. As a matter of interest I would like to know just what the legal position is of withdrawing from the EU – not that i THINK this is, necessarily, the best option, but it is the one I instinctively prefer.
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This comes as no surprise – was it George Washington and the famous quote about fooling the people. This could lead to the double whammy, Cameron having flunked the referendum test maybe Brown will be booted out as NuLabour suddenly realise the election is now theirs to lose. In business terms Cameron has alienated, continues to alienate and goes out of his way to alienate his best customers.
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The pollsters all told us Labour were a shoo-in in 1992. They’re about as accurate as the Met office.
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I vote retrospectively now because you cannot count on what the main parties say they will do. In the last 20 years i voted either Labour or not at all at general elections. Labour and the LibDems do not deserve my vote ever again after the lies in their 2005 manifestos, but I haven’t voted for the party of Maastricht since Maastricht and there was not enough in David Cameron’s European policy speech to persuade me i should change now because seeking to restore a couple of Maastricht opt-outs while accepting everything in Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon is not enough. If that means 5 more years of Labour, i prefer that to a lifetime of European political union that no major party has the political courage to get us out of.
You are right that a Conservative government is the only realistic prospect of change, but i won’t live in hope it will be the one on offer in 2010. And all the European governments have said there will be no new EU treaty for 10 years at least, so in reality there is little difference between the Conservative position and that of Labour going into this election.
I would say it is time to consider emigrating now. If you stay under an EU political system you disagree with when there is no real chance of change, then you are really accepting it. if voting makes no difference at least i can deny the super-state my taxes by leaving.
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I intent to vote for the BNP. My only “crisis of conscience” is whether, if there is no BNP candidate in my constituency, should I vote UKIP or spoil my ballot paper?
I don’t consider myself to have left the Conservative Party, I consider the party to have left me. Any time the Tories plegde to get us out of the EU and reverse the mass immigration that happened under New Labour they can have my vote back.
It will be interesting to see if May 6th (I’m guessing!) will be a break-through day for the BNP. There seems to be a big discrepancy between BNP support on the internet (most popular website, dominates newspaper comment sections, especially the Daily Mail which has given up weeding out pro-BNP posts and doesn’t use “ugly” pictures of Nick Griffin anymore) and support as expressed to street pollsters. I think access to the mass media will be key for the BNP. Their message is very attractive to the lumpen electorate, but generally doesn’t get though.
The big parties may console themselves with the thought that UKIP tends to take votes from the Conservatives and BNP from Labour – there should be a degree of cancelling out there.
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Nero was charged with fiddling while Rome burned.
The modern version seems to be that while our democracy, Constitution and sovereignty turn to ashes, most of those with an interest in the way we are governed concern themselves solely with who plays first violin in an orchestra of fiddlers.
When will responsible people begin to concern themselves with the principles on which this nation has been built? We have not always demonstrated those principles in practice, but, until recently, we paid them lip service at least.
Politics has been called the art of the possible. It is still possible to be faithful to God, loyal to the Queen, to fight to uphold the freedom won for us by our forebears and to do our duty, as is amply demonstrated by our armed services. Isn’t it about time that those in authority in this nation began to do the same, instead of just talking about it.
I will vote for that man, whatever he calls himself.
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If the general situation were to be as many comments here paint then everyone would be talking about the evil Euro empire everywhere, constantly. Yet outside of the press and political blogs I hear very little. Mostly, people seem worried about their jobs and money, cost of living and taxes.
To hold DC up to be vilified for not having a referendum whereas Brown and co are the real villains seems disengenuous at the least, to the point where I start to question the motives of those pushing UKIP as a solution for eurosceptic conservatives. I agree with Ross Warren’s points that UKIP is a lobby group, there is no real substance there which gives me any confidence a viable government will be formed that actually accomplishes anything. I am not seeing any indication from them (or anyone)of what happens after they pull England and Wales out of Europe, particularly when the euros legislate a move of the finance sector to Frankfurt or Paris. The UKIP manefsto examples of Norway and Switzerland as models hardly make sense.
For me the first priority is to fix our economy and unwind much of the damage inflicted in the last 12 years, Time enough for our continental friends to make some creative mistakes.
Labour guarantee staying in Europe at our complete disadvantage while UKIP will not guarantee our coming out of Europe because they won’t get enough of a vote. This doesn’t leave Eurosceptics much of a choice really.
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I feel it’s a bit unfair on Mr Redwood, going to the trouble and expense of setting up and paying for a website, then most of the respondents saying they intend to vote for another party! It is very difficult to say whether the replies here are a cross section of Conservative supporters, though I have noted the same disillusionment with the main parties amongst my customers.
Although I am dubious about the benefits and the intentions of the EU, I wonder if an immediate referendum on Lisbon or on in/out of the EU is the wisest move. The powers in Brussels might at once start making life difficult for Britain economically, which is not what is needed at the moment. Maybe, a more discreet non-compliance with rules and regulations would be a better idea to start with, followed by a referendum later. As someone pointed out yesterday, the British always follow rules and regulations. It’s one of the reasons for our stability and former strength. But, the Continentals just turn a blind eye to whatever they don’t fancy, and get away with it! Maybe, we should adapt a little…
My constituency is so safe for Labour that people like me can afford to vote UKIP as a protest. Were I living in a seat winnable by the Conservatives, I would be loathe to not vote for them, as the current mess caused by Labour is rapidly heading towards a catastrophe, and we have a duty to try our best to remove them.
Thankyou for your diary Mr Redwood. It’s the first thing I go to every evening, even pushing the football into second place!
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Mark Parker Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 8:42 am
Indeed, I am one of those who posted saying he intended to vote non-conservative. However my post has not been “approved” and you can’t see it. (I can still see it up there near the top.)
I justify using Mr Redwood’s website for this “betrayal” by baldly stating what it would take for the Conservatives to get my vote back; in my case – better pandering to my Euroscepticsm and dealing with the immigration issue.
Politicians need to be told how people are thinking, really thinking, as opposed to having their opinions distorted by the prism of the politically correct mass media.
Some of the media are beginning to “get it”, the Daily Mail especially, but the rest are trying to pretend it’s business as usual.
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Simon Reply:
November 24th, 2009 at 9:39 am
Your post is a good illustration of the reality of EU membership. “The powers in Brussels might at once start making life difficult for Britain economically”. Precisely, they will blackmail us, especially with the sort of party leaders we have at the moment who display nothing but timidity in the face of EU demands for ever more power.
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It is excellent news that one poll (mysteriously delayed by several days) seems to show that Cameron hasn’t sealed the deal.
Firstly less chance of some of your less sensible colleagues making complete arrogant fools of themselves, secondly Brown might actually hold off his scorched earth policy designed to leave an even bigger mess (heck, listening to him at CBI, he’s all for encouraging entrepeneurs – nothing like raising their taxes for achieving that eh Gordon?) , and thirdly if Labour’s deliberately created culture of benefits addicts don’t need to bother to vote they won’t.
In the face of last weeks’ latest EU undemocratic outrage one can hope it might get some proper direction from Cameron in this area, but maybe the threat of Labour’s useful idiots in UKIP costing the Tories seats in the South, and possibly the main gig, might just provoke some real thought in this area.
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The idea that erstwhile UKIP voters will see some sort of sense in voting for David Cameron so that they can watch him trade away what’s left of British Sovereignty, rather than Gordo, beggars belief.
The pro European fifth column are advancing within the party (Kenneth Clarke, Eric Pickles, Patrick McLoughlin et al). Worse still, some of them appear to be effectively choosing candidates, no doubt whose views reflect their own.
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What a whole load of tosh based on an even bigger load of tosh.
A poll by ICM on the same day gives a Tory lead of 13
%
15 Nov, MORI : 37-31-17
15 Nov, ICM : 41-29-19
13 Nov, YG : 41-27-18
12 Nov, CR : 39-29-17
Indeed going back to the last 6 polls the Tory Vote/Lead has been
37/06
42/13
41/14
39/14
39/10
38/14
The sample in the MORI poll from which the headline lead has been produced was just …. wait for it …. 450 !!
PS …. the latest Angus Reid Poll has labour down to 22%
39-22-21.
So stop building your prejudices up based on a foundation of sand.
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We are fed up with the “election” of two nonentities over whom we have no control to make our lives hell in the EU.
We are fed up with the way that America treats us. Obama doesn’t talk to Mr Brown. The Generals despise us as cowards after Basra. Our Ambassador was called in for a bollocking after Basra by the president. All this was in the Telegraph today. No longer allies, but down there with Zimbabwe and slightly below President Kharzai.
Mr Cameron and Mr Brown were both shown to be perfect hypocrites over the poppy ceremony. We all know that Mr Cameron and his wife are multi-millionaires and we don’t mind at all. What the trouble is when they pretend to be like us. They simply are not like us. Their good point is that they don’t need to swindle their way to the top: they are there by birthright already.
We are terrified that Mr Cameron really is the “heir to Blair” – shifty, unreliable, keen to give all our history and rights away in return for for a smile from a fellow professional politician.
And lots and lots of us are frightened of losing the “Public Service provision”, welfare state, OAP, dole money, wage, salary, pension which Gordon Brown promises will be retained to ward off the world wide recession. OK, it is not true, but whoever said that people want to hear the truth?
Unless the Conservatives get a grip, the debt is going to win. The Teenagers will remain in control of the house. We will continue to be the soft touch for the whole world, despised by friends and foe.
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Dear John,
I must thank you for your early reply,which is more than I get from my own MP for Ipswich. As you said that you have interests in Ipswich,you must know the prospective Tory Candidate,who is about as good as a chocolate fire guard. I do agree with you on the lost business vote,that disappeared in the 60’s. As for the British National Party being a far left party,well,I really must disagree with you,we are a Nationalist party,taking views from all sides that put Great Britain first,second and third and that goes for the indigenous people as well. Thank you again for your reply,it’s a great pity that you lost that election back in 1995(?).
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What do the Tories offer the English exactly? Nothing different from Labour or the Lib Dems.
Where do the Tories have MPs other than in England? There is one lonely Tory in Scotland, soon to be none. It is so bad in Scotland for the Tories that they would consider it a victory if they had two instead of one.
What angers me is how 40% of Tory candidates reportedly said they were “relaxed about Scottish independence”. Presumably this figure included incumbent MPs, which begs the question, where have they been for the past 12 years, while their own constituents have been so badly disadvantaged compared to the Tory desert of Scotland?
If they are so “relaxed” then why has every PMQs not been filled with irate Tory MPs berating firstly Blair, and now Brown, about the iniquitous inequities?
Why should I vote Tory?
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And now we have another poll:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/23/pb-angus-reid-poll-has-labour-down-to-22pc/
17% lead again! Polls sometimes get too much attention, as was clearly the case with the MORI poll – buried for a week to try and secure some limelight for what now looks like a rogue result.
Many who comment here place undue emphasis on the EU to try to explain why Conservatives aren’t riding higher in the polls. It really isn’t the focus for the vast majority of voters at the moment (even if it should be). The reality is that Labour have governed us far worse than if we had been under direct rule from Brussels. The paradox is that a Cameron government might indeed push the boundaries to the point where we are effectively limited by what Brussels permits. When that can be shown to be the case and the limitations prove to be inimical to our interests and the desires of voters it will be time to address the EU issue with greater confidence. The powers we need repatriated will be better defined, and if Brussels are unwilling to give them up there may be a clear case to consider withdrawal. In the mean time, we can pursue French style pragmatism of ignoring Brussels when it suits to do so.
The real disappointment is that in so many areas Conservative front bench spokesmen criticize but fail to offer real alternative policies. They seem to imagine that the electorate are horses to be frightened by making real suggestions. The danger is that they will end up vacillating instead of acting when in government. The electorate seems to sense this, which is why some of them are flirting with other parties instead.
For example, which party has the policy that is most likely to keep the lights on? It’s UKIP – and this on an issue that has nothing much to do with the EU (except for ignoring their Large Plant Directive). They’ve also got an education policy worthy of the name – much more detailed than anything from Gove and Willets, who, Gove’s Big Idea aside, make no promises to unwind the disaster of Labour’s policies. We recently had a discussion of the Tory immigration policy which you posted: the comments repeatedly pointed out that the policy lacked real content and bite. We all know that Margaret Thatcher managed to knock out support for the BNP by offering a robust policy herself.
Whilst I can appreciate that Labour have been all too willing to steal policy ideas that prove popular for their next soundbite and to lambaste ideas that threaten their hegemony, the electorate need to know more in the way of policy answers. There are some good foundations (welfare reform is perhaps one of the most significant and welcome ones), but we need to see more of the blueprint.
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Political Betting has some insightful tips that may help.
1. First this is either a rogue poll, or a temporary blip on the back of a significant win in the Glasgow by-election. (The poll being taken a few days before its publication. The Guardian poll published the same day had a much greater lead.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/21/has-labour-got-by-election-poll-boost-from-mori/
2. The Guardian poll published on Tuesday, but on polls taken on the same day had a much greater lead.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/22/two-polls-same-timing-different-outcomes-eh/
3. For three general elections, the Conservatives were the party to vote against. Now it is Labour who are more disliked. So the lead in popular poll required for the Conservatives to get an out-right majority in parliament is likely to be less than before.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/23/is-alex-right-about-the-system-bias-towards-labour/
4. The latest poll out tonight has a 17 point lead for the Conservatives. Might be another rogue poll, but evens things up a bit.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/23/pb-angus-reid-poll-has-labour-down-to-22pc/
Whilst this may all be true, it is better to avoid complacency than let things slide. The Conservatives will need a huge mandate to tackle the huge problems created by this government. The lowest possible poll is also desirable for the Labour Party to make them relinquish the undemocratic, destructive and evasive style of politics that they are sinking further and further into.
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i think you forget that in England the Conservatives are much further ahead
forget worrying about Europe and worry about Scotland and their MP’s dictating to England
where are the sensible politicians standing up for the English and the inequity of the Scottish having their own parliament, the Welsh and Irish doing very nicely, and the English being governed by Scots?
even if the Conservatives lost big time in an election are currently planned they are likely to win significantly in England, and England should be run accordingly
thats what real democracy demands
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I think that there will be plenty of poll swings yet, that will focus minds. The Lisbon treaty vote was denied by mr Brown not mr Cameron, and this should be pointed out whenever the labour spin machine raises it. Those wanting a referendum on Europe may want to vote lib dem, if they can stomach their other daft policies.
My vote is yet undecided, but in a safe Tory seat, so probably only useful as a protest or an enormous majority. I am very anti our MP who is a waste of space and personally very arrogant, having met him a few too many times.
I think a hung parliament or minority labour govt would cause such a run on the pound that the IMF would be called in in weeks. This may be the only way to sort out the finances when the Tories are so hesitent about cuts in the campaign period. I would rather a Tory government that had a real plan to get the defecit down. You don’t create growth with govt spending, just inefficiently redistribute it.
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Again, we are being given the choice to vote with deep reservations for Big Party1 or Big Party2, or to vote according to our conscience. I think continuing democracy requires the latter in the long run.
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