Nov 23 2009
Watch the spin
The week-end press as always had been well briefed by the government. The spin lines for the next few months in the run up to the election are becoming clear.
The government recognises dwindling support for the war in Afghanistan. They will use a conference in the new year to highlight their new policy to transfer responsibility for security from British troops to local forces, and try to find a way of signalling actual troop reductions before the end of 2010. They will hope the Conservatives demand more troops and more commitment as a contrast.
The government sees that inflation taking off over the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year could alarm people. They are out in force complaining that anyone who mentions this is an “inflationist” or an old fashioned “banker”. The media is told that inflation will spike near to the election and then fall away again, so there is no need to worry. They gloss over the fact that at a time when private sector incomes are only going up 1% a year, inflation at the forecast 2.7% represents an unpleasant cut in living standards, especially for the lower paid.
The government is hoping some positive economic figures will turn up before the election. Given the earlier and faster recovery elsewhere in the world, the level of interest rates and the amount of money they have printed it would be surprising if they didn’t. Meanwhile we will all be reassured that inflation will come down again and the troops will come home, even if we can’t see that at the time of the election. The problem is that at some point next year whoever is in power it will become obvious that we cannot carry on borrowing such huge sums at such low rates of interest. Then tough choices have to made. If we delay those choices too long they may be forced on us by the markets.
9 Responses to “Watch the spin”
John Redwood has been the Member of Parliament for Wokingham since 1987. First attending Kent College, Canterbury, he graduated from Magdalen College...
The current administration has no concept of how to stop spending money. Why should it bother learning now, when it doesn’t expect to win the next election? It’ll probably be somebody elses problem in a few months time.
Perhaps the best hope for the economy is if Mr Brown believes the favourable poll published over the weekend, and goes for a snap election before this assumed support evaporates.
At least then we have a chance for somebody less profligate to take charge.
I doubt it will happen, as he probably genuinely believes that his plan is finally coming together. There is nobody as blind as one who does not want to see.
Someone on the BBC said that the annualised gap between tax taken and government expenditure accounted for about the spending on the NHS
I don’t know if this is accurate, but it was a good illustration
If we keep borrowing at present levels, then the £ will fall further and inflation will pick up pace.
There needs to be a review as soon as possible to reduce public spending. Instead we have silly stunts such as enshrining into law reductions in government borrowing and the pretence that cutting borrowing now will harm the recovery, nothing to do with holding out until the election.
The biggest piece of sheer duplicity is Gordon Brown taunting David Cameron over his “Cast iron” guarantee on the Lisbon treaty – I just don’t know how Mr Brown can keep a straight face.
It may have been overlooked but the tories should not in my view, oppose the “balance budget” legislation from the queens speech. Then when in office and forced to make cuts, say something along the lines of “look this is Labour’s law” we are merely abiding by it. It would also make Labour look foolish in opposition by opposing cuts.
JR: “The week-end press as always had been well briefed by the government.”
Why hasn’t your party briefed them so well? This is what I mean about the leadership’s failure to put across a strong and convincing position on the major issues. I am beginning to wonder if they have a real desire to win the next election after all.
Al Reply:
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:55 pm
I was about to raise the same point. I had thought I detected a wind of change in the media that was less critical of the opposition. Possibly they were concerned about a Labour rout and any future working relationship with a new government. The poll lead is slipping and the momentum seems lost. After years of ‘conservative brand decontamination’ the Tories should now be sticking the boot in on a daily basis, this current shower of incompetents certainly leave opportunity.
Most members of the electorate are economically illiterate. That is why an appalling Government like this one can get away with it’s lies and spin.
The Tories need to explain the situation in very simple language and cut down a bit on the doom-mongering. No-one wants to continually be told that things are going to be dreadful for the foreseeable future, but please vote for me. They’d rather listen to the lies and promises peddled by Labour.
Cameron messed up by not promising an EU Referendum. He has lost my vote on that alone. Because unless we recover our lost sovereignty from the EUSSR, nothing else will matter. In a year or so’s time, we will be paying direct taxes to Brussels and will have completely lost control over our economy – as well as our laws, foreign policy and politics.
It is clear from the many comments everywhere on the blogosphere that many conservative voters are unhappy with David Cameron’s ‘no referendum’ statement, as also, with his rather anodyne intentions to restore some powers back to us. I do understand his difficulty – the treaty is a fact – but I think that, to reclaim those votes, he needs to provide stronger, but realistic, messages. As a matter of interest I would like to know just what the legal position is of withdrawing from the EU – not that i THINK this is, necessarily, the best option, but it is the one I instinctively prefer.
What are the most important things we have? Our children? Our health? Our jobs? Our home? Our Pensions? Our money?
The debt puts all of these in doubt.
Mr Brown and his myrmidons are using very cloudy language to assure people that these things will go on for ever, unless, that is, the hated Toffy Nosed Tories are elected. If they are, everything will stop.
Most people couldn’t give a monkey’s about politics. But the things they really do care about seem, to a lot of people who are on the dole, sick, parenting or who are involved in delivering the Welfare State, to be safer with Labour.
Figures vary but in a lot of places it seems that at least 3/4 people are being employed by the bloated Welfare State.
Add in the BBC and a lot of the Media, including the “alternative” comedians and perhaps some gerrymandering of the election itself, and Mr Cameron’s team are going to have a real uphill battle.
Argentina! Here we come!
“The government recognises dwindling support for the war in Afghanistan. They will use a conference in the new year to highlight their new policy to transfer responsibility for security from British troops to local forces, and try to find a way of signalling actual troop reductions before the end of 2010. They will hope the Conservatives demand more troops and more commitment as a contrast.”
The public of course are starting to ask, why? When so many young men are not coming home, and with Wotton Basset, keeping the cost in lives firmly in the public eye.It is unsurprising that the nation is losing its appetite for this war. To add to this the vast majority feeling is that fighting this war is not our business. It is also true that this War has not been presented very well at all. If we do indeed stay engaged, then it will be our duty to explain the reason why to the public.