John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood of 30 Rose Street, Wokingham RG40 1XU.

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Municipal roads are letting us down

I have watched with concern  as Council highways departments have spent much money and time making our roads worse. Motorists and business drivers have to pay huge sums in taxation. There is the taxation on a new vehicle, road fund duty to take a vehicle on the roads, there is the 55% of the fuel price that goes in taxes to the state as fuel duty and VAT, and  the taxes on insuring and maintaining the vehicle. The original idea that motoring taxes pay for the roads has long since been supplanted by spending much of the traveller and transporter  taxes on anything but roads.

Local authorities do not seem to see the roads as a necessary service to taxpayers where they should  constantly consider the ease of safe use of the highways by the taxpayers. Most people need to use roads for good purposes. Van drivers need to get to their next client. Delivery drivers need to get food to the shops and medicines to the surgeries and hospitals. Parents need to drive young children to school in safety. Emergency vehicles need to get to accidents and disasters. Many workers need a car or van to get to their place of employment because of their hours and or the location of their work and home. Few people live in walking distance of a station with an employer in walking range of another station down the line. Few people can do the weekly shop from a bicycle or bus. Buses and cycles too need roadspace.

Years ago when I was a member of a County Council I found then there was a wish to restrict use of the roads by some officers rather than a wish to provide additional capacity and safer freer flowing junctions. Traffic lights were often preferred to roundabouts. More recently Council after Council has set about narrowing roads, removing lanes, creating artificial barriers and bollards to restrict flow, cutting  traffic light green phases on busy roads, changing kerbs and painted lines, creating more special zones. They often take out parking spaces and raise the charges, leading to more vehicles circulating looking in vain for a parking place. Many streetscapes now are a slalom course festooned with many menacing signs. Large sums are spent on aggressive kerbs,with b fancy blockwork for carriageways.

All this undermines business productivity, limiting the number of calls someone can fit in. It adds greatly to business costs and therefore to prices of services as the self employed and businesses need to recoup the increased cost of transport and parking.  It adds to the stress on drivers and can make roads and junctions less safe, as with the country roads where now one way is occasionally blanked out  by bollards forcing vehicles to use the wrong wide of the road to progress. It gives many Councils a bad name and leads the public to be more hostile to all the taxes they have to pay. A council only provides two services to every household, the roads and the refuse collection. If both are damaged and made worse people form a bad impression of the Council as a whole.

Today we see too many roads full of unrepaired potholes, and too many streets narrowed or under road works designed by the Council, against the driver. Too much money is spent on making roads less available and too little on better roads away from pedestrians and homes to allow people and businesses to get about in a sensible way. Coming into work yesterday my optimistic sat nav once again underestimated the time it would take by 17 minutes, not allowing for the all the delays created by Councils through roadworks that many of the public do not want performed.

The Bank of England deliberately hiked mortgage rates

On 21 st  September 2022 on the eve of Kwarteng/Truss budget the Bank  announced a 0.5% hike in bank rate. This was designed to push up interest rates. Just to make sure it would mean higher mortgage rates on the same day they announced they would over the ensuing year sell £80 billion of bonds at a loss  which they had bought at very elevated prices in the previous year. Selling bonds pushes their price down which automatically pushes up interest rates.

The bond market fell in the days before the mini budget because US bonds were falling and interest rates rising , and then because the Bank so clearly signalled it wanted rates higher. This was a bad background for the Kwarteng announcements.

On the following Monday it became clear in the market that a number of  pension funds had bought too many government bonds through levered funds. As bond prices fell they had to put up more money for bonds they owned but had not fully paid for. They did not have cash to pay for their losses so they had to sell bonds to raise money, on top of the planned massive sales by the Bank. No wonder the bond market tanked.

The Bank of England responsible for the overall solvency of the system at last realised their dreadful error of selling so many bonds when pension funds were so weak. They suspended the  sales and agreed to buy some. The market surged upwards, Pension funds had space to reduce their heavily overcommitted positions and the crisis past.Between 28 September and 14 October the Bank bought £19.3 bn of bonds to correct its errors.

These were the special UK factors of autumn 2022 that temporarily increased volatility. The UK trend was the same as the US and EU. The higher mortgage rates that resulted were  caused by Bank of England policy.Todays higher rates have nothing to do with the long cancelled Truss budget.

 

 

Mortgage rates

I write to counter the Labour lies that Liz Truss’s mini budget of September 2022 caused higher mortgage rates, owing to unfunded tax cuts.

I wish to make it clear Liz Truss did not take my advice on either the mini  budget or the policy on the  conduct of bond buying and selling. As set out on my website I recommended tax cuts matched by some spending reductions , with support for energy bills limited to  lower income households, not for everyone. I strongly argued against starting a large programme of bond sales from the joint Treasury /Bank portfolio amassed under Quantitative easing.

So first the facts.

UK ten year bond yields rose to a peak of 4.4% on 9 th October 2022, more than two weeks after the budget. They fell back to 3.1% on 20 th November following temporary reversal of the Bank’s aggressive bond sale programme. They hit a new higher high on 13 th August 2023 at 4.67%. They are currently at 4.2%.

They largely mirrored US ( and EU) bond rate rises. The US ten year yield rose to 4.2% on 21 October 2022. The US bond rate rose to a higher high of 4.9% on 20 October 2023.

These changes were not reflected in Japan or China as their Central banks did not make the same errors as the Bank of England, Fed and ECB who needed to rein in excess money they had created by forcing up interest rates.

This pattern shows there was no big special effect from the Kwarteng budget. It also shows rates went higher a year after the Kwarteng  budget had been reversed, as happened in similarly placed EU and US,

Tomorrow I will explain two special factors hitting the UK in the autumn of 2022 from Bank policy which did temporarily cause sell offs in the bond market.

 

UK short of capacity

I was talking last evening to a US specialist in AI who had come to the UK. asking about what it would  take for the UK to catch up with US AI and digital success she made two interesting responses.  Lay on more electricity and water.

If the UK is serious about building on its relative success over the rest of Europe in now being the third tec hub a long way after the US and China tge UK needs to  expand its web capacity. This needs large increases in electricity supply to power the Cloud servers and storage centres, and plenty oof water to cool. It is also going to take more broadband capacity.

I would add that it would help to take corporation tax down to 15%. The Republic of Ireland has proved this generates a lot more revenue than 25%. If the golden triangle of Cambridge, Oxford, London is to be the new hub it takes more homes, trains and road capacity too.

The UK is far behind the US in tec and so in GDP per head, growth and numbers of large companies. Much of the necessary extra capacity can be financed in the private sector, but it will take more energy by government to get it going.

 

My Speech on Spring Budget debate – National Insurance

Dear Colleague – Post Office Horizon – compensation for Postmasters

I reproduce the latest from the Post Office  Minister to speed up compensation. I have urged the government to get on with this.

Dear Colleague,

Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Bill: House of Commons Introduction

Since the 2019 Group Litigation High Court case, the Government has been working hard to right the wrongs of the Post Office Horizon scandal, which began in the 1990s. The Government has been processing full, fair and final claims for financial redress as quickly as possible. The Horizon Shortfall Scheme, which was set up in 2020, has paid out ÂŁ107 million, and initial offers have been made to all of the main group of claimants. The Group Litigation Order scheme, launched last year, has paid out ÂŁ34 million, which includes interim payments. For those postmasters whose convictions were overturned by the courts, ÂŁ38 million has been paid, and since October last year, claimants have been able to access ÂŁ600,000 in a fixed sum award. This is part of our plan to tackle the Horizon scandal, one of the biggest miscarriages of justice in British history.

On 10 January, the Prime Minister announced a major step forward in response to the Horizon scandal. He confirmed that the Government would introduce new primary legislation to make sure that those convicted as a result of the Horizon scandal, are swiftly exonerated and compensated. I am pleased to announce that the Bill, to deliver on this commitment,
will be introduced to the House of Commons today.

The Post Office (Horizon System) Offences Bill sets out a clear set of objective criteria which identifies the convictions which are in scope. Individuals whose convictions meet the criteria will have these convictions automatically quashed at Royal Assent, without any action on their part. Records such as the Police National Computer will be amended and individuals will be notified and invited to apply for financial redress. Only if we do not already have information about their convictions will individuals need to act to have their records updated.

All convictions within scope will be quashed on Royal Assent whether or not we have identified the individual at that point.
The legislation will apply on an England and Wales only basis. We have been working closely with colleagues in the Scottish Government and Northern Ireland Executive to progress their own approaches to quashing convictions and wish to see equitable outcomes for postmasters delivered across the whole of the United Kingdom.

The Government recognises the constitutional sensitivity and unprecedented nature of this legislation. The Government is clear that given the factually exceptional nature of the scandal, this legislation does not set a precedent for the future relationship between the
executive, Parliament and the judiciary. The judiciary and the courts have dealt swiftly with the cases before them, but the scale and circumstances of this prosecutorial misconduct demand an exceptional response. We are keen to ensure that the legislation achieves its goal of bringing prompt justice to all of those who were wrongfully convicted as a result of the scandal, followed by rapid financial redress.

With the will of both Houses of Parliament, it is the Government’s intention that the Bill will secure Royal Assent as soon as possible before Summer Recess.

Financial redress for those with quashed convictions

Financial redress is not in scope of this legislation, however once this legislation has been passed, we will provide a route to full, fair and rapid financial redress for quashed convictions. This will be paid on the same basis across the UK, regardless of where or how
the conviction was quashed. I am also pleased to confirm that the Financial Secretary to the Treasury will be introducing secondary legislation to ensure the monies received are exempt from tax.

I am pleased to also confirm that this new scheme will be delivered by the Department for Business and Trade, rather than the Post Office. My officials and I are engaging with the Horizon Compensation Advisory Board and claimant representatives on the design of the scheme. Those whose convictions are overturned will be able to choose between accepting a fixed sum award of ÂŁ600,000, which will be paid quickly, or having their losses individually assessed.

I can confirm that Post Office have started work on preparing for disclosure of documents they hold on claimants. Whilst I recognise concerns around Post Office involvement and I am keen to keep it to a minimum, given the data Post Office hold there is a need for them to be involved in disclosure.

Progress on existing financial redress schemes

For the Group Litigation Order scheme, we are mindful that claims are not being submitted as swiftly as we would like, so it is taking us too long to get help to claimants. To remedy that, at least in part, I can announce that we will top up compensation to ÂŁ50,000 on receipt of a full claim if the claimant has not opted for the fixed sum award of ÂŁ75,000. If an initial offer is not accepted and independent facilitation is then entered, we have committed to paying postmasters 80% of the initial offer, to help ensure that claimants do not face hardship while those discussions are completed.

In January, the Government announced that it would introduce an offer of an optional £75,000 fixed sum award for participants in the Group Litigation Order scheme. The fixed offer means that claims are dealt with promptly, and some people will get more than they asked for. The fixed offer also has had a helpful effect on other claims – it substantially reduces the effort to be invested in small claims by claimants’ lawyers, making more resource available to progress larger claims quickly. I am therefore pleased to announce
today that this policy will be extended to the Horizon Shortfall Scheme to ensure equal treatment across the schemes. Those who have already settled their claim below ÂŁ75,000 will be offered a top-up to bring their total redress to this amount. Over 2,000 postmasters
will benefit from these top-ups.

We will work closely with the Post Office to ensure these payments can be made as early as possible. The Financial Secretary will be introducing legislation to ensure these further payments are made exempt from tax.

For postmasters whose convictions were overturned by the courts, they can now top up their interim payment to ÂŁ450,000. Of course, if they have opted for the ÂŁ600,000 fixed sum award, they will get that instead. This Government is continuing to work hard to right the wrongs of the past and ensure swift exoneration and financial redress for victims of this scandal.

Yours ever,

KEVIN HOLLINRAKE MP

Minister for Enterprise, Markets, and Small Business
Department for Business and Trade

‘The Digital and Green Revolutions Compared’

John Redwood’s Lecture, All Souls College, Oxford: ‘The Digital and Green Revolutions Compared’
Friday 8th March 2024
11:00 – 12:30
All Soul College, Old Library, Oxford

  1. The Green and Digital revolutions
    • Green. Top down, set out by governments and large corporations
    • Advanced by subsidies, tax breaks for green products and regulation, higher tax and bans for products thought to be generating CO2
    • Digital. Popular, bottom up, fuelled by an innovative industry launching popular new products. Spreads quickly without laws, taxes and subsidies.

 2. The extent of product adoption

Digital Green
Mobile phones

8.58 bn (more that the world’s population)

Battery Electric cars

18 million

Laptops and desktops

3.8 bn

Heat Pumps

177 million

Internet users

5 bn

Rail 7% of travel (by distance) and 1% of journeys
Facebook users

3 bn

Free smart meters

57% take up

3. The electrical revolution
• 20% of world energy is currently electric
• Fossil fuels dominate
• Most vehicles run on petrol or diesel
• Most heating systems run on gas, solid fuel or oil
• Most energy intensive industry burns gas or coal

4. To decarbonise energy
• The world needs to switch most of the 80% currently burning fossil fuel to electrical options
• The electricity generators need to switch their large generation from fossil fuels to renewables or nuclear
• Renewable power would need to increase by at least tenfold
• There would need to be substantial battery storage, pump storage and other means of handling weather induced falls in supply

5. Why don’t more people buy EV’s?
• Too dear
• Range too restricted
• Shortage of recharging points
• Length of time to recharge
• Fear of new taxes on EV’s
• Insurance and repairs issues

6. Why don’t more people install heat pumps?
• High cost of installation
• Need for major rebuild of older home to raise insulation standard
• High running costs in cold weather

7. Why do more people not go by train?
• Tickets can be dear
• Trains often do not go to where you want to go
• The times available may not suit your busy day
• It is difficult handling luggage or heavy shopping on a train
• Most train journeys also need journeys to and from stations that can be dear and complex without a car
• Once you own a car you find it convenient to use.
• The car goes when you want directly from your home and returns when you want. It can get to practically every place in the country.

8. Why do so many people refuse a “free “smart meter?
• They suspect it will be used against them to charge high prices at times of high demand or to cut off power when system is struggling
• They fear it will go wrong as some have leading to wrong bills
• They do not want the disruption to their home from installation
• They think it wasteful and not green to throw out a working meter they already have

9. Why do people oppose planning permissions for grids, pylons, turbines and solar farms.
• They find these green needs intrusive on the landscape
• They do not want the disruptive works in their area
• They do not want more farmland taken away from local food growing
• They do not want the noise of turbines

10. What do people like about digital?
• Online shopping offers more choice and price competition and saves the journey to High Street
• Downloaded entertainment allows you to choose when you watch a film and gives you much more choice of viewing
• Social media allows chat on the move wherever your contacts are
• AI helps you problem solve
• Google searches let you find out instantly what you need to know
• Zoom, Teams etc allows you hold remote meetings

11. What do people like about digital?
• The business model of many of the digital companies is customer friendly.
• There is often a free offer for a basic service paid for by adverts and or business users e,g, free Google searches, free AI, free social media platforms
• There is often a subscription option as with Amazon Prime, download and software regular payments
• Mobile phones can be provided as part of a rental/ service package
• A lot of charging is to business rather than directly to business customers.

12. Covid lockdowns accelerated digital
• Many people who were wary or unwilling to use digital had to get up to speed to buy online and communicate with friends and family
• Online solutions to shopping took off for many as a good alternative to physical presence in shops
• People wanted more in home entertainment to absorb the hours of house detention
• Digital products to allow person to person conference calls and get togethers took off.

13. Why do some fear AI?
• Some see AI as a big threat to employment
• Some see it as a threat to academic standards, exams and teaching
• Some see it as favouring big government that will be able to control and manipulate people more
• Some worry that it could help false information spread, it could increase cyberattacks and could be used as weapons by criminals and delinquent states
• Its invention cannot be cancelled so we need to manage it

14. The good news about AI
• The co-pilot model means a firm can achieve higher productivity and more worthwhile jobs by using the AI to do the drudge work quickly and accurately
• There will be more jobs in technology as an offset to fewer clerical and repetitious jobs as with the factory autmoati9n phase of development

15. What role does Government play?
• It regulates it after the event
• It seeks to increase its tax take from successful digital companies
• It slowly adopts it for its own service

The NI fund

The NI fund last year collected ÂŁ129 bn in NI contributions from employers and employees. More than half came from employers. It paid out ÂŁ110 bn on pensions and was left with a surplus after its small contribution to other benefits.

The pension itself is paid to people over retirement age based on their contributions. Some people are awarded  credits but most earn them by making tax payments from employment or self employment income.

If the government did abolish employee NI there would  be a significant shortfall in the NI to pay  the pensions. Government would need to set out how it would transfer money to the NI fund to keep  it solvent, or would need  to abolish it and take payments into its general accounts.

It will also need to set out who qualifies for a pension and how much pension they will be entitled to in a world where no one  is making NI contributions. It would be a bad idea to abolish all links  with work and taxpaying. There could be some  notional identification of Income tax on work income as a replacement qualification, or some calculation based on employer contributions per person.

It would not be fair to pay  anyone reaching retirement age a full state pension. That way a work migrant could come here to work the last couple of years, gain citizenship and then claim a full pension.

The residual contributory benefits would presumably go. There will need to be conditionality and qualification criteria for these benefits.

The whole point of the contributory pension was to link working with saving. The idea of the fund was to relate cost of future benefits to contributions over a working life. If the  aim is to eliminate all employee contributions the government needs to set out in a reform Green paper how a new system would be better, and how they will graft a new system for employees onto the old system of employer NI contributions. Meanwhile government needs to stress this is not a pledge or commitment to abolish employee  NI as they have not identified how that would  fit into OBR arithmetic.

NI, the pension and the contributory principle

Beveridge nationalised the popular and successful contributory or insurance principle. Working men  in the 1940s paid weekly into “the club”, “the social”  or “the sick”, charities and societies that paid them assistance if they fell ill or lost their weekly wage. They believed in working to keep their families and thought it right to pay for insurance against worklessness.

Beveridge created a national insurance scheme which provided subsistence payments if someone could no longer get a weekly wage. It also added in the state pension when they retired. State pensions were included in the sickness and redundancy insurance scheme which depended on a single regular payment out of income.

Subsequent changes understandably saw us want more generous sickness, unemployment and pension payments .Gradually more of the non pension payments were made out of general taxation and no longer depended on contribution records. As the triple lock policy drove the real value of pensions up so pensions came to dominate the NI fund .

I do not wish to reproduce arguments over the fact that  the NI fund has always been pay  as you go, not funded. It receives a favourable audit certificate every year because  current payments in exceed payments out. The current working generation pays the pension of the older generation in the knowledge that their  children  will pay their pensions in due course. I will look at the impact of abolition  of employee NI tomorrow.If you wanted to convert to a funded scheme the current generation of workers would need to pay  twice.

Why cut National Insurance again?

I do not recall MPs and constituents calling for a further reduction in National Insurance. Readers of this site will remember  the list of targeted tax cuts I requested, led by IR 35, VAT Threshold, and energy taxes . Others urged Income tax thresholds, Stamp duty and the tourist tax.

I have been willing to back a further NI cut as it is on offer. It does relieve some  pressures on working individuals and families  and provides a modest offset to the Bank of England recession inducing money policy. It does make it worthwhile working which is a good thing.

It does not poll very well and has not led to a big Conservative poll bounce. Many disenchanted Conservative voters are over the age to pay NI but subject to more Income tax if they wander over the tax threshold. There is some bemusement over the longer term aim of abolishing NI, which came out of nowhere. It is clearly not affordable on current policies.

Maybe they mean to abolish just employee NI, leaving in place employer NI which would remain as a tax on jobs. That makes it more affordable. I will look in more detail at the wider impacts  were they in due course to abolish employee (and self employed) NI.