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So why does the government want us to stock up for disaster?
In the case of each kind of event the government thinks might need us to keep some tins of food and some water in the store cupboard it is the government that should be taking action to prevent the event from happening.
If it’s hostile countries or terrorist groups disrupting our undersea cables, issuing cyber attacks and damaging UK facilities that is an argument for the government to get on with strengthening our defences and putting in a sufficient Defence budget. Where are the ships to patrol our nearby seas and the counter forces to stop illegal criminals getting into the country?
If it’s hot weather leading to us running out of water why the delay in putting in the new reservoirs? If the threat of flood in winter where the new containment and storage measures?
If it is running out of power, where are the back up facilities, the energy stores, the stand by generators that can work when the wind has gone on strike and the sun gone to bed?
If it is poor harvest and a food shortage, where are the grants and support for farmers to farm, and to put in farm irrigation with more fruit and vegetables under cover?
Most of us agree we need greater national resilience. Current policy forces dependence on more and more imports, with all the extra risks to supply that that brings. We are increasingly dependent on the goodwill of foreigners for energy and food, and on their ability to provide for themselves and for us. That may not always be possible.
My IEA article on the collapse of the UK car industry
Buses and trains preoccupy Mr Burnham
Downing Street South must have a cluttered desk. There is the delayed need to pay for a better defence settlement. There is the Milburn Report on how to get people back to work, delayed until after a budget it was meant to influence. There is the escalating benefits bill as more young people get a sick note for life . There is the brain drain as more talented and hard working people and businesses flee UK taxes.There is the collapse of high energy using businesses, throttled by the UK’s super dear energy.There is the progressive closure of all our petrol and diesel car factories thanks to the early ban in 2030. There is the threat to the Falklands and the disastrous and expensive attempted give away of the Chagos. There is the delay in getting our own oil and gas out forcing us to rely on dear and less reliable imports.There are many more problem files in the in box.
So what does Mr Burnham do as he sits at his desk in Downing Street North? He plans £2 bus fares, reviving an old Conservative policy. He dreams up new fines for people playing loud music on buses and trains. He imagines a nationalised rail and steel industry will work fine, and dreams of an industrial strategy which remains unconnected to government reality.
Where has he got to with his first pledge, to offer every rough sleeper in every postcode somewhere to live? How can he pass more powers to Mayors whilst giving away hard won rights to self government in his proposed Re set with the EU? Why can’t regional Mayors say No to illegal migrant accommodation?Why can’t they use any extra grant to cut taxes? Why can’t they turn down plans for developments they do not like?
Talking about buses, noisy trains and devolution from Manchester to look away from the growing inbox in Downing Street south is not a good way to do the job.
You do not save the Union with more devolution
Reflections on the French riots
We hear that protests about poor conditions in French schools and unfairnesses at universities have broadened into general protests about everything from the cost of living to the state of the Middle East. The far left party Insoumise denies responsibility for the state of the streets and the left generally criticise the police for inflaming things with too much tear gas and too many rubber bullets.
What is clear is that the protesters express their anger in a self defeating way. Small businesses are looted and ransacked. Great public buildings are damaged or burned down . Bond markets take fright making it dearer for the government to borrow. Many law abiding hard working people fear for their local shops and property and face the riots and tear gas when they venture out.
These protests make the economic issues worse. They terrify some of the people they say they want to help. They do not offer solutions.
President Macron had a Marie Antoinette moment dancing in a privileged box as Paris highlighted poverty and public sector austerity. His attempts to crack down with curfews on the many who do not riot shows his weakness.The centre of French politics has not held. We await the electoral contest between right and left.
The 1970 s were dreadful. Why does Mr Burnham wish to revisit?
What was it that took Mr Burnham’s fancy about the 1970s?
Was it the high inflation that made our current cost of living crisis look mild?
Was it government borrowing longer term costing 15.5%?
Was it the rate of pit and factory closures?
Was it the halving of UK car output 1972-82?
Was it the colossal losses of the nationalised industries led by coal, rail and steel?
Was it the brain drain as talent and investment left the country?
Was it the 83% higher tax rate on earnings and 98% on savings income?
Was it going to the IMF for a loan when the government ran out of money?
Was it areas in the hot summer of 1976 cut off from running water in their homes by nationalised water?
Was it Heath putting the country onto a three day working week thanks to a miners strike?
The run up to the budget
The latest figures for GDP growth show the year to August has delivered reasonable growth in services led by computing and digital services. This is the biggest part of our economy so overall growth remains better than the sluggish main EU economies whilst remaining below digital leaders USA. Production industries have been flat, whilst construction has fallen.
The collapse of new housebuilding is dragging down growth. There is no sign of a surge in new Council housing which Labour promised and used to get the OBR to up their forecast a little on the back of the promised package of measures. Rising government borrowing rates knocking on to mortgage rates are holding back private housing work.Labour will discover wanting more Council houses rather than Housing Association ones means far fewer new homes with public money .far more of the cost of a new Council home than of a new Housing Association one counts as public spending owing to the absence of private sector money in the Council home.
The new Chancellor has allowed some speculation on new and higher taxes whilst apparently realising that is a bad idea which hits confidence and stops new investment. He said he could not rule out harmful tax rises, then later did rule out Capital Gains Tax , leaving open other feared tax rises. Labour had anyway ruled out any increases in the three main taxes in their Manifesto showing you can rule out tax rises. What a stupid muddle.
There is no sign of a plan to control runaway benefit spending, no wish to find the much needed extra money for defence that John Healey resigned over. Most commentators think the forecasts will find the Treasury too close to the minimum level of reserve for comfort. The latest rumour is yet more tax on banks. They already pay 3% more as a supplement on the standard 25% Corporation Tax, and pay a levy on their balance sheet. These two bank taxes already make it less worthwhile to keep and use money in London. If John Healey makes it worse more banks might divert more capital abroad.That will be another anti growth policy.
My IEA article on AI and government
PR and local government
To the noble Lord, Lord Campbell-Savours, I am in complete disagreement that we need to change the method of election to the House of Commons. He is right that the single-member constituency and the constituency link is fundamental. I remember when I went to Brussels all too often as a negotiating Minister, and met Ministers there chosen or elected by other means, that one of the big gaps between us was that I was constantly saying that a new law could not make any sense for my constituents I was meeting tomorrow in my surgery. Their response was, “Well, why do you bother?” They did not have to, because they did not have that single constituency link.
It is also easiest and fairest to say that the person with the most votes wins. As soon as you become the Member of Parliament, you have to represent everybody to the best of your ability, and you need support from your constituents. So, it makes sense to give the job to the person who already commands the most votes of the group who came forward in election, and it is obviously much easier if you win more than half the votes, as I often had the good fortune to do when I was a Member of Parliament. You need to build support and represent people, so the single-member constituency is the least bad way of electing the House of Commons.
The Liberal Democrats would be wise to remember that when they were in the coalition Government, one of the things they insisted on—and Conservatives agreed to—was, on their choice of system, to have a referendum on whether we should change the voting system. From memory, the public voted 68% against, in favour of keeping the current system—more than two-thirds. I was and am still with the public on that. They were right. I have always found the “democracy” bit in the Lib Dem name a bit odd, because whenever we have a public vote, they always seem to disagree with it, then they want to overturn it, not listening to the views of the people. They do not like the verdict that was given on their preferred system of changing the voting system, and they do not like the outcome of the Brexit vote, when millions came out to say we needed to restore our sovereignty, so that we could have a debate like this to discuss how the powers of self-government should be administered and distributed.
The Liberal Democrats wish that to be taken away from us to a much higher level of government by agreement between parties around a council table, with only the Commission allowed to write the laws and make most of the suggestions. The Lib Dems need to think very carefully about how they see democracy, compared with the way the rest of us see democracy—because we think democracy is about the voice of the people. There is only one thing above the elected House of Commons: the voice of the people in a referendum. The House of Commons would be wise to accept the verdict of a referendum, because otherwise, the people in the House of Commons can be changed at a subsequent general election.
As a former local government Minister, and, as a young man, a county councillor who chaired a committee and was therefore responsible for the conduct of various departments in the county council, I have a great affection for local government. Over my years as a Member of Parliament, I worked very closely with leading councillors in my area, and quite often, the issues that most concerned my constituents were wholly or partially decided by the local council.
What that taught me was that it is very disappointing that turnouts in local government elections are so low and that we do not get a good public debate through local media, and even social media, about the powers, duties and money that the council dispenses . If people knew more about what could be done by local government, I think there would be more interest in voting.
However, I am afraid that a lot of Labour and Liberal Democrat councils, as well as councils under no control, put people off. Instead of being proud of their powers and telling people how they will spend their money, all we ever hear from these councils is that they do not have enough money and they do not have any power because everything is already decided by the national Government. People therefore naturally conclude that there is no point in wasting their time with these councillors and councils, because the councillors themselves say, “Well don’t blame me, we can’t do anything; it’s already sorted out by the national Government”.
That of course is not true, but one of the further reasons why people are confused or put off is that we have far too many layers of government and council. It is a huge mistake to introduce regional strategic government in a small, very unified country such as England, and to have that in conflict with what should be truly local government through the local councils. My area moved over from county and district to unitary; I broadly welcomed that, because it removed some of the confusion. It means that, for local matters, we can say, “O unitary authority, it is your problem”, instead of being told that some row is going on between the county and the district and that nobody was really to blame.
That still leaves us with quite a lot of government, although I am very pleased that we have knocked out the European level, because that was a mighty imposition of taxes and laws that we often did not want. I am also glad that we have gone to unitaries, but we still have parish government, and now this Government are trying to intrude regional government on us. It is muddle, confusion and extra cost.
Let us deal with the question about the money. We always hear that most councils do not have enough money, and yet every year the council tax goes up, usually by more than inflation. That is what the public see. Every year government grants go up—yes, under Conservative Governments, as well as Labour Governments, grants usually go up—and councils still say that they are poor. Then when you look at how they are misspending, you can see why: councils that went on a binge buying up commercial property because the debt was cheap, or, as in my local area, a Lib Dem council wasting money on road projects and destroying our road systems for something that people do not want. The answer rests with local government using its powers and spending its money more wisely. ( Time limit kicked in )