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The abolition of a department
I am willing to give one cheer for the disappearance of a whole government department, the Science, Innovation and Technology department. I would give more cheers if I thought things would be better and overheads were lower from the changes. I will be surprised if they do slim government as a result, as I suspect there will be the rebuilding of what it does and who does it through a complex redistribution of tasks and posts. The expanding Business department will be the main “winner”, gaining staff and work. Some activities will pass to DCMS.
The critics of the move claim this will mean less representation for science and technology in decision making. The supporters say all departments need to be alert to scientific and technology threats and opportunities. The government Scientists already operate across government depending on need, from the Government Office of Science. There will be a Minister for AI in the Cabinet Office.
The danger of these reorganisations is they incur substantial costs and divert energies away from the subject itself to the complications of the Whitehall power structures and musical chairs. It is difficult to point to what the outgoing Department has achieved. I asked recently that the Lords Minister set out what benefits we are getting from the government’s £3bn programme of introducing AI to its own processes, and what greater staff efficiencies it would generate. It was a friendly question giving the Minister the chance to explain how they were spending this large sum and what good it was doing. There was no reply, so presumably there was no briefing. The suspiciously round sums of the original announcement of AI money without precise programmes was always a concern. I thought now they were well into spending it they could tell us on what and how we will gain.Their inability to do so invites more questions about how this cash is splashed.
This change in the architecture of government to handle the most exciting scientific and technological developments now underway goes unexplained. It would be good to see what the plan for transfer is, how much it will cost and who will control it. I doubt they have worked all that out. Officials look for promotions or for a better deal and politicians lazily dismiss a whole department whilst wanting its work to live on elsewhere.Costs go up. No one is responsible for controlling them. In business if you scrap a department it is usually to take out cost and reduce functions. Government works by different rules which usually ensure reorganisation brings more staff and more cost. AI too in the public sector may do the same, impeding not advancing labour productivity.
Instead of planning more spending the PM needs to unleash more growth
The PM wants to spend more. He cannot afford that. He needs to start by helping the country earn more. Increasing the number and rates of taxes in this situation will damage growth and depress revenues. Removing bans, self defeating tax rates and excessive regulation could boost growth and bring in more tax receipts.
1. Lift the ban on exploring for new oil and gas offshore and onshore. Tax revenue will flow from the exploration work and jobs created.
2. Licence Rosebank and Jackdaw fields.Immediate big tax boost as their production kicks in.
3. Allow new onshore gas away from settlements and with royalties for local property owners. Plenty of potential new tax revenue.
4. Abolish carbon taxes and emissions trading to save high energy using industries. There has been a catastrophic rate of closures of oil refineries, ceramics factories, steel plant, petrochemical works,sugar beet,fibreglass, glass and other high energy users in the last two years. Pay for this by cancelling carbon capture and storage expenditures. Saving businesses keeps tax revenue on their jobs and activities which we still need.
5. Lift the progressive ban on new diesel and petrol car making which is destroying the car industry.
6.Remove the new 50% steel tariff which is damaging steel using industries and putting up construction costs.
7.Switch farming grants to helping food growing away from environmental and solar panel based hand outs
8. Cancel the disastrous give away of our fish to the EU and offer loans and grants to expand our fishing fleet, building the boats in the UK.
9. Cancel the tourist taxes and stop Councils buying investments in property and renewables with borrowed money
10. Exempt all small shops, leisure,pubs and High Street businesses from business rates, paid for by cutting money for anti vehicle road schemes which make it difficult for customers to use the roads to get to the shops and raise business costs.
The PM’s challenges My IEA piece this week
City Region Mayors will create division and fail to extend prosperity to every postcode.
It is best if a PM does not lie, does not set out unachievable aims and targets, and thinks through policies to ensure effectiveness and compatibility with what government is already doing. Yesterday’s Council in the North to get City region Mayors to jump start growth is set to fail.
Much of the country does not have City Mayors. There are none in the south outside London. How do these unrepresented areas compete? Why were they not invited to the Council in the North?
The City Mayors we do have already bid for funds and have more freedom over how to spend public money. There is no evidence this has speeded their growth. We are told this will be different. Mayors will say what they need and national government will respond instead of national government offering cash and policy ideas for them to take up. I doubt there will be much difference in practice.
We are told there will be a revolution in how much power is devolved. I bet there will be no such thing. Today in the crucial area of planning and local plans central government rides roughshod over them when it wishes. There is no likelihood of Burnham allowing Mayors or Councils to set their own housing targets or to determine if they house illegal migrants .These are crucial decisions where local people want change and influence over the outcomes.
As they rummage around for a new tax to indulge Mayoral spending habits they settle on a tourist tax . So Mayors will tax your holiday and try to put you off a break or staycation in their places. Another upwards twist to the cost of living. Killjoy policies.
What will be the new PM’s foreign policy?
So far we have heard the new PM wants policy to be less pro Israel. He had a successful first conversation with President Trump, but many potential tensions remain in the US/UK relationship from the second half of the Starmer period. The President will expect the UK to deliver on higher defence spending so the UK can make a bigger contribution to policing sea lanes and protecting Western interests than the pathetic response to the Gulf war and the threats to Cyprus and our installations in the Gulf. He has strongly recommended getting more of our own oil and gas out, which would be in the UK’s national interest and would strengthen western energy security a bit. I doubt Mr Burnham will have the will and the skill to achieve much in shifting policy away from the self harming accelerated close down policy of Mr Miliband.
He also has the problem that Mr Miliband at the Foreign Office will be encouraging more international agreements and better policing of our current obligations under the UN climate change mantra. The President will want a more positive response to his war with Iran which would be difficult for any UK PM. The UK wants the war over but does not want to contribute to it militarily and did not propose it in the first place. The best that can be done is to develop our maritime role to help clear mines to restore more shipping routes.We do of course need to allow the US to use its bases, otherwise they could pull out of supporting our defences. That comes with its own risks.
Policy towards the EU will continue to be craven surrender. The new PM is as desperate to have a deal and a big publicity driven summit as his predecessor. There will be a big price to be paid for warmer words from the EU. Their plan is clear. They want the UK to assume more and more of the laws, taxes and responsibilities of their single market, which has always been a whole government scheme, not a free market. The EU will charge us for “more access” to the single market where we already have a tariff free trade agreement, which will in practice mean rules that are more likely to favour their companies than ours. The UK negotiators always forget we are mainly the customer of the single market, not the supplier, as our imports of goods so greatly exceed our exports. I have set out before what a dreadful deal Erasmus is for our students and taxpayers, and I strongly oppose the sell out of our fishing industry yet again.
The immediate challenge should be to get rid of the latest Trump tariffs. With Ed Miliband as Foreign Secretary this is more difficult, given his anti Trump views and his policy of importing so many cheap solar panels from China. When will Ed Miliband talk about labour practices in China’s solar panel supply?
Some friendly advice to Mr Burnham. Recall the Commons
There are three good reasons why government should first present new spending plans, new taxes and new laws to the Commons.
The first is the discipline of preparing a policy and thinking through how it will work makes for better and longer lasting proposals. Ministers need to draft a statement which answers the How, the Why, the How much and how it fits in with existing government actions. Policy on the hoof to please crowds and respond to opinion polls can easily fall apart, leading government to U turns and ridicule.
The second is the announcement to Parliament and the public conversation Parliament supplies serves to inform the public. It gives the government a platform to explain it to the public and to make its case of why it is a good idea and how it will affect people.A casual reply to an interview or a planted story does not have the same credibility or force . Limiting which media outlet gets the news item on a favouritism basis limits coverage elsewhere or encourages the rest of the media to be critical. Announcements to Parliament can be covered by all media.
The third is that in a democracy we welcome the ability of MPs to be critical of government to spur them on to perform better or to explain themselves better. People who disagree with government’s aims or general strategy deserve a voice to put forward an alternative for debate. More importantly for government MPs of all parties may make a constructively critical contribution leading to improvement and amendment of the government’s initial version whilst keeping the aim.
So please Mr Burnham do yourself a favour by recalling the Commons and making proper announcements, thought through that add up. Doing it with a crowd pleaser a day and a U turn on the morrow is sloppy. It damages confidence in government and in the markets. U turns before you have landed a single proposal will drain your authority.
Do not borrow so much
One of the worst features of the government situation is the colossal and fast growing debt interest costs. Now over £100 bn a year, this is hard earned taxpayer money that buys us nothing we want. It has leapt up both because this government has continued the bad ways of the covid period and borrowed so much more money, and because the UK now has to pay a higher interest rates than most advanced countries because it is not controlling its public finances properly. As Mr Burnham took over the cost of the UK state borrowing for ten years went over 5%, compared to the one day only spiked rate of 4.s8% under Liz Truss which Labour so roundly condemned. The Truss government never borrowed at anything like that rate. This government is regularly borrowing at rates around 5%. This too is a growing burden, as the low interest rate debts of the 2010-23 period come up for renewal that then means a big increase in the debt interest.
So what does the government have to do? It has to cut spending and borrowing this year and next. It has to do so in a credible way. That gives triple relief. It means less new debt. It means a lower interest rate for the new borrowings. It means a lower rollover rate for the old borrowings that need replacing. It is quite easy to find spending to cut. They could start with carbon capture and storage and the excessive net zero subsidies. They have announced some cut back in the digital ID work, though One Government ID continues. The Opposition has set out a substantial programme of benefit cuts and has offered support in the Commons to get it through. They could open up oil and gas development, bringing substantial new tax revenues to the UK instead of exporting the tax to the overseas supplying countries.
Chaotic reshuffle makes things worse
Keeping senior Ministers waiting for hours before the PM tells then what job they will have wastes their time and alienates them.
Asking them to perform near impossible tasks sets them up to fail. How can the new Chancellor find all the money he needs to keep his own promises on defence spending?How can Angela Rayner get anywhere near hitting the target to build 1.5 m homes in five years when the first two have gone so badly? How will continuing the sell out to the EU achieve anything other than more costs and less benefit to the UK? How will keeping our own oil and gas in the ground undiscovered and paying high taxes to foreign governments to import oil and gas instead help us or save the planet? How will letting many more people get a sicknote for life on benefits help them or the economy? When will they have a plan to stop the huge losses and grants at nationalised Steel and the Post Office? How will they pay for more nationalisation?
The lack of a statement to the Commons and the refusal to let MPs cross examine the PM is a disgrace. The outgoing PM told us how well he did, so why did Labour MPs dump him? If they all think his economic policy worked the country is in for a bad time. If they now back yet more Reeves style tax rises and wasteful spending things will get worse.
We cannot afford more nationalisation
Nationalising water polls well. That just tells us the public is fed up with sewage discharges into our rivers, rationing when we want to water our gardens, and the recent large rises in our bills. I am as critical as any of the poor performance of some companies, the failure to spend enough on new and bigger pipes, more treatment works and more reservoirs.
I part company from the public mood over the proposed solution. I remember the nationalised water industry before 1989. It gave us the name “ the dirty man of Europe” as EU rules and monitoring revealed just how much sewage discharged to rivers and to our beaches. The industry was regularly blocked from putting in new capacity and new reservoirs as every pound they spent counted as public spending which a hard pressed Treasury and over taxed voters could not afford. In the heat of 1976 some parts of the country had their mains water turned off because of a shortage, People had to queue in the street to fill a bucket from a standpipe.
Three things went wrong with privatisation. The government refused to allow competition on the specious argument that it is a natural monopoly as you only have one pipe into the home. We only have one gas pipe and one telecoms cable into the house, but that did not stop competition. Without competition the industry has lacked innovation and more pressure to keep down prices.
The Regulator decided to stop companies spending more on expanding capacity and replacing pipes in order to keep prices down. This in turn prevented good companies cleaning up their game and gave bad companies an excuse not to bother.
Successive governments then invited in very large numbers of new residents with proper though of how to provide all the extra pipes, treatment works and reservoirs they would need to have a good water service.
Nationalising will not solve any of these three problems. To solve the dirty and scarce water problems the government needs 1 to stop large net migration. 2. To introduce competition into water services 3. To instruct the Regulator to allow a major further uplift in investment programmes to speed up ending sewage discharge and water shortages .
Nationalising would require a large outlay of money on buying up the companies or on compensation for compulsory purchase. If the government confiscated the assets there would costly lawsuits and many investors would be put of off risking their money in the UK.