John Redwood's Diary
Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems. Promoted by John Redwood 152 Grosvenor Road SW1V 3JL

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My speech on carbon taxes

I agree with the contributions from Northern Ireland. This order is discriminatory against Northern Ireland in favour of Scotland, and it will do considerable damage to consumers and business in Northern Ireland.

I also welcome the remarks of my noble friend Lord Moynihan, who told us that we are engaged in a much wider debate on this rather narrow instrument now that the Government are saying that this is an important part of the United Kingdom’s participation in a carbon border adjustment mechanism—or carbon tariff. They also wish to join the ETS at European level, in a carbon taxation scheme, which is even dearer than the United Kingdom one we have inflicted on ourselves. I urge the Government to think again. This has carried very badly in every part of the United Kingdom, represented here, that will be affected by it.

However, it is part of a much bigger error that government policy is creating. Over the last decade, the United Kingdom has been a world leader in reducing its CO2 output and has been dutiful to a fault to treaty obligations that actually relate to more distant years. As a result, we have seen a catastrophic deindustrialisation, which has gathered huge pace and momentum in the last two years with the intensification of the net-zero policies this Government have welcomed and introduced. To extend part of this system to the maritime sector would cause further damage.

Many years ago, I had the privilege to lead a big international industrial group. In those days, the group had its headquarters and most of its main factories in England. We were proud of that. We struggled to compete, but we did compete. Where we had a problem, we remedied the problem. We needed to raise our capital efficiency, so we had to spend money and investment on better plant. We needed to train our staff and use our staff better so that it was a better organisation. We stayed in the market, and we stayed producing. For example, we were responsible for a large part of the ceramic tile industry in the Potteries, with its very distinguished tradition of innovation—and domination, at times—in that very important market.

While I was there, we managed to make the investments and stay competitive enough, although the Italians were very good. I watched with sadness and shame as my successors gave up the battle through no fault of their own. At our current energy prices, we are so far away from being able to do even something relatively simple in industrial terms, such as making good industrial tile for all the homes with bathrooms and kitchens that need it. That is replicated sector by sector now.

We have heard the Green case, feeble as it is, briefly sketched today in this short debate. My response to that is that practically every policy initiative this country has taken to reduce its own CO2 has contributed to an increase in world CO2. Why on earth is that good for the environment, let alone good for our economy? We will not get our own gas out of the ground, and so we import LNG, which generates three or four times as much CO2 in the process than using our own. It is crazy, and we must stop doing this.

We need to have better-paid jobs and more investment in the United Kingdom. We need to rebuild our maritime industry. We heard from a very well-informed noble Lord, who told us that over his lifetime, supporting what was once a great industry, we have seen it almost disappear and vanish. This great maritime nation cannot now carry its own goods, because it did not create the right tax and regulatory conditions to sustain shipping in this country.

I urge the Government to think again. This is a small part of a big crisis. This is undermining our capacity to do well and make the things we need in this country. Dear energy is a killer. This is part of a package of measures that lumbers us with energy so dear we cannot make things for ourselves.

Cut the petrol tax

55% of the petrol price at the pump is tax. If any of the oil used to make the petrol is still allowed to come from a UK field then the total tax rate is much higher given the near penal levels of tax on oil production.

The surging oil price on world markets will put our petrol prices up more. As it does so the government tax take goes up, as VAT is charged on petrol and profits tax on oil production will also rise.

Motor fuels affect us all and put up our cost of living. All our food, drinks and many other items are delivered by truck and van. Most of us use a car or bus or diesel train to get to work, to shops, to schools.

The government tells us it will get the cost of living down. Once again with fuels it turns out they are main price gougers. Today they plan to collect a lot more tax from oil and fuel, whilst pretending to share our pain.

Cut the petrol tax all the time oil prices stay high.

How to end the war?

It is easy to start a war. It is more difficult to stop one.
President Trump’s military intervention was too late to give victory to the mass protesters out to topple the government.

Now he is bombing, the protesters are more circumspect because the Revolutionary guards still seem to be in charge and have shown their willingness to murder protesters in large numbers.

The US claims to have destroyed the Iranian navy and airforce, but Iran is still able to direct missiles and drones against US bases and to offer a credible threat to shipping.

The US can carry on bombing as they find other stocks of weapons. They could try to bomb Revolutionary guards, though presumably they do not assemble in obvious locations. Where they blend into the local communities they gain some protection as the US needs to avoid civilian casualties.

Maybe the best the President can do is to bomb as much military and kill as many top officials as possible and declare victory. He will have to have destroyed most Iranian missiles and drones to greatly reduce the threats.

It would help if he can urgently establish a convoy protection system for tankers in the area.

Why doesn’t the Chancellor respond to the energy crisis?

The Chancellor presented silly forecasts from the OBR that some of us said were out of date when published. How are they getting on with a forecast for oil prices staying around $65? What revisions would they now make to inflation and unemployment with energy costs so much higher?
Like the rest of the government the Chancellor does not seem to know there is a war on, or if she has now seen it does not think she needs to take action anytime soon to adjust our economy to new circumstances.
What should she do? She should get taxes on energy way down to offset the impact of the higher prices. 55% of the pump price for fuel is tax, so offset the rise in oil prices. Suspend VAT temporarily from domestic gas. Talk to the oil and gas companies about getting their taxes down to a level where they will maximise current output and put in more capacity with a big investment surge.
The Treasury will get a windfall increase in tax from higher energy prices. However, borrowing is still too high so the government needs to embark urgently on the spending reductions the Opposition has proposed to take the pressure off the bond markets and interest rates. It would help if the government cancelled all their proposed extra payments to foreign governments and the EU over Chagos re set, steel compensation, and the extra payments to illegal migrants the Home Secretary has announced..

More money for foreigners

This government just loves giving money away to foreign governments and companies. It is money we cannot afford, money they borrow which adds to taxpayers bills.

This time, as I warned, it is the offer of money to Jingye, the company that owns the blast furnaces ar Scunthorpe. Labour failed to nationalise them but passed legislation taking control of them to stave off closure. The furnaces were losing a fortune partly due to the UK ‘s sky high energy prices .

This meant taxpayers are paying the bills for the operating losses and stocks without making clear it took the assets unencumbered by debts for nothing. The blast furnaces were not worth anything given costs of closure or losses from running them.

The government promised to keep them open. How much will this cost taxpayers? They implied the blast furnaces would be replaced by a steel recycling works. When? How many jobs go when that happens? Will the government break its promises to the steel workers by sacking lots of them before the election? Or will it put taxes up again to pay the huge bills, meaning others lose their jobs as the higher taxes take their toll? Why pay any compensation to the owners when it costs so much to run the plant, saving the owners the closure costs.

Potholes and bad roads

I recently used the M6 Toll road again. Free flowing, good services area, no potholes. What a contrast with some of the nationalised motorways. In the last one a half years a government that hates motorists has starved them of maintenance so we now have the potholes we are used to on lesser Council roads on our most used and biggest highways. Hitting a pothole at 70 mph can do more damage than on a slower road. Motorists have to keep lane disciple to avoid other vehicles so they usually cannot swerve to avoid.

All my life our roads have been inadequate. Always too little capacity and under some governments and Councils badly maintained. In recent years the highways authorities have done their best to reduce capacity for cars and to make it mire difficult to drive anywhere.

We beed to put in more capacity to cope with the huge increase of population and to accommodate all the long haul trucks for imports necessitated by the government’s huge industrial plant and factory closure programme.

The obvious way to do it is to allow new toll roads or toll lanes adding to existing roads. The driver paying the toll for less congestion and a better road wins, but so does every other road user as the public roads paid out of taxes also become less congested.

The large number of prolonged road closures reflects dreadful public sector management. Toll roads stay open as much as possible as their owners and builders beed the revenue to lay the bills.

The lack of political leadership lets down our forces

I am not usually in favour of us fighting wars in the Middle East. I do think the only way to deter Iran who see us as an enemy and regularly attack us one way or another is to provide strong defence and to help destroy their aggressive forces. It is almost unbelievable that there has been no naval ship going to the Eastern Mediterranean. Our two fairly new aircraft carriers are both in UK ports. None of the 6 destroyers were available to send to protect our air base in Cyprus either before hostilities or when fighting broke out. One destroyer is crewed and ready but Ministers decided it was more important to send it to an Arctic exercise than to divert it to the real thing. Don’t they know there is a war on?

Surely they should have sent more air and some naval power to the Med weeks ago when it was obvious there were tensions that could boil over?
Shouldn’t they require better planning of deeper maintenance to avoid the service loss of too many ships at the same time?

The government’s punk lawyer approach makes life impossible. Sloppy law has left them in limbo on the disastrous planned give away of Diego Garcia. Threatening old soldiers with yet another review of long ago IRA troubles is unfair and puts people off joining the army.

Meanwhile the government promises extra money to repair holes in our defences, but this is too little too late , sometime never money.Will no Minister rebuild our defences? Will no Minister lead our forces in a proud way, ensuring they are available for action when needed? Starmer’s failure to act against Iran is shaming our country.

Gibraltar deal, another government give away

The long draft EU UK Treaty reveals once again a UK government that thinks negotiations with the EU are about taking dictation of theit terms. So often there does nit seem to be anyone speaking up for the UK.

Facts4eu have set out sone of the detail and implications of this latest give away. I have asked the Minister in the Lords to set out high high the financial cost if this deal will be for Gibraltar. How much will the handling charges be? What excise tariffs will be imposed by joining the Customs Union? What will be the compliance costs of all the EU regulations to be imposed? How much money will be given to the adjacent area of Spain in levelling up funds?.Which other taxes will be raised? What impact will thus gave on the Gibraltar business model where lower taxes and sensible regulation have helped create prosperity. The Minister had no reply on the total costs. When I buy something I expect to know the price before I say Yes, it is good value.

The government claims there will be no loss of sovereignty.How come? If Gibraltar has to accept EU laws whenever they add or change them, and put taxes and charges at their demand, surely that is a material loss of sovereignty?

The only good thing about the Treaty is the get out clause. Future governments of the UK and Gibraltar may need a unilateral exit without penalties. The Opposition in Gibraltar is understandably concerned about the role of Spanish officials in controlling entry into Gibraltar in future. The UK government should be concerned about EU and Spanish leverage over the airport. Our crucial military base needs free access for military personnel and materiel, where the small print of the Agreement needs careful testing.

OBR, the good, the bad and the ugly

Was there anything sensible in the OBR forecast? They were probably right to push their growth forecast down to nearer the consensus at 1.1% for this year, and to increase their unemployment forecast to 5.3%. Most were assuming this from private sector forecasts anyway.

They forecast that inflation will be at the target level of 2% in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030. That would be highly unusual. One of its foundations is their forecast that oil prices over those years will stay within a narrow range of around $62-68. That is also unlikely.

They assume that housebuilding will boom from the current 220,000 a year to hit 300,000 a year by 2029-30. So by the last year of this Parliament housebuilding will at last have reached the annual run rate the government promised, but will of course have fallen well short of the 1.5m target over the 5 years. There is no obvious reason to forecast such a big rise.

They think base rate will start to rise again from next year. They also expect the average government borrowing rate to hit a crippling 5.2% in 2029/30, up from 4.4% this year. This is not a background for more home purchase. It will confirm it has always been dearer for Reeves to borrow than the previous government.

They do make some plausible forecasts. They say the tax burden which was 38.8% of GDP in the last Conservative year will hit a terrifying 42.5% in 2029/30. That’s a 12% real increase in tax bills.

They expect gas production in the UK to halve (2030/31 on 2024/5) as a result of the manic close down our industry policy. They expect welfare spending to surge by £75 bn or 24%.

They estimate Bank of England losses to be paid for by taxpayers at £89 bn between 2025/6 and 2029/30! Still they do nothing to reduce them.